Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Forecast probability fell
2.3× its usual variation — larger than usual
24%somewhat unlikely
−4.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
What the world expects, watches, feels and disagrees about
A view assembled from public forecast markets, public discussion, reference activity and official releases — four separate readings, never one score, each carrying how it was calculated.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionabout usual
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulencecalm
- Disagreementclear disagreement
- Forecast Movementmoving
Attention55about usual+12.2 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Mood−4about as usual+32.9 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculated30% positive · 53% neutral · 17% negative
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Turbulence36calm+0.9 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Disagreement53clear disagreement−10.1 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement56moving+1.9 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
167 questions · 2 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
The last 24 hours, without the explanations
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Forecast probability rose
2.1× its usual variation — larger than usual
4%very unlikely
+1.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
721 changes were compared. Not shown: 389 with nothing to compare against, 330 within their usual range.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 8.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 25.5%
- Public attention
- 7.2σ from usual, 2 sources
- Observed order
- 3 hours apart
Strength within early attention: 43%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? from 16.5% to 21.5%
- Public attention
- 5.8σ from usual, 2 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
Strength within early attention: 25%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 12.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractUS recession by end of 2026? from 23.5% to 11.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 60%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
5 further detections on this page — show them
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 10.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 27.0%
- Public attention
- 0.5σ from usual, 1 source
Strength within quiet move: 45%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- One attention source stood behind this.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.0 pts over 24 hours, across 2 contractsWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 25.0%
- Public attention
- 0.5σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 40%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 3 contracts2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House from 52.5% to 57.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 25%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? from 46.0% to 54.5%
- Public attention
- 0.8σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 24%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
NARRATIVE GAP
News coverage rose while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Public attention
- -0.1σ from usual, 2 sources
- Coverage
- 7 separate reports, 5.3σ from usual
Strength within narrative gap: 66%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- The coverage baseline covers a short history.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
- One of the signals is older than its usual update interval.
Biggest movers
- unusually high+28.4 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+20.7 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+20.5 ptsup over 24 hours
7 further topics moved less — show them
Trending topics
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- Cricket16One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
2 further topics on this list — show them
- Ireland16One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
The world by category
- Politics61 topics
- Uncertainty
- 22 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will Pat McFadden be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- Economy26 topics
- Uncertainty
- 22 — low disagreement
Most followed question: GDP growth in 2033?
- Conflict17 topics
- Uncertainty
- 18 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will Klaus Iohannis be the next Secretary General of NATO?
- Technology18 topics
- Uncertainty
- 15 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- AI11 topics
- Uncertainty
- 24 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
- Crypto20 topics
- Uncertainty
- 7 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
- Climate10 topics
- Uncertainty
- 42 — moderate disagreement
- Energy12 topics
- Uncertainty
- 13 — low disagreement
Most followed question: When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
- Health11 topics
- Uncertainty
- 40 — moderate disagreement
Most followed question: Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2030?
- Sports20 topics
- Uncertainty
- 10 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- Entertainment12 topics
- Uncertainty
- 25 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Who will perform the next James Bond Song?
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 80%
- Coverage
- 60% — 6 of 10 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 34 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 7 more seen and not scored; 32397 items carried no identification
- 6 of 6 regions, over 60 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings