AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
12.0× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+223 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
What the world expects, watches, feels and disagrees about
Not news. Not a forecast of our own.
See what changed in expectations, attention, public mood and disagreement — each shown separately, never folded into one score, and each with how confidently it could be measured.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionbelow usual
- Moodmore negative than usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Disagreementsome disagreement
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention31below usual−7.2 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Mood−19more negative than usual−4.0 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 28% positive · 53% neutral · 18% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Turbulence41active−13.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Disagreement50some disagreement+5.0 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement38some movement−6.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
466 questions · 3 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
8.8× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+14 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
Coincided with a change in discussion sentiment.
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon
Discussion turned more positive sharply
6.2× its usual variation — far larger than usual
22
+20.8 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Coincided with a change in attention.
2 further changes on this page — show them
AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose sharply
5.5× its usual variation — far larger than usual
82mentions
+51 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose sharply
7.2× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+38 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
800 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 59.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 3.2× its usual daily move
- Public attention
- 11.5σ from usual, 5 sources
- Observed order
- 21 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 100%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 25.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? opens in a new tab from 57.2% to 82.2%
- Public attention
- 8.3σ from usual, 5 sources
- Observed order
- 21 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 100%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 25.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? opens in a new tab from 57.2% to 82.2%
- Public attention
- 6.3σ from usual, 5 sources
- Observed order
- 2 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 79%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
7 further detections on this page — show them
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.3× its usual daily moveWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
- Public attention
- 6.6σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 38%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 2 contracts, 2.3× its usual daily moveWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
- Public attention
- 12.0σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 3 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 38%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 4.1 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 3.0× its usual daily moveBitcoin below $55K in 2026? opens in a new tab from 7.4% to 11.5%
- Public attention
- 8.5σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 18 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 20%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 4.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027? opens in a new tab from 9.0% to 13.0%
- Public attention
- 5.1σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 9 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 20%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.8 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily move
- Public attention
- 12.0σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 7 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 19%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.6 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? opens in a new tab from 5.1% to 1.5%
- Public attention
- 5.4σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 4 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 18%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily moveWill there be an AI bubble before 2030? opens in a new tab from 68.6% to 71.9%
- Public attention
- 5.4σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 23 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 17%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- about usual+26.8 ptsup over 24 hours
- elevated+22.0 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+18.9 ptsup over 24 hours
7 further topics moved less — show them
Trending topics
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
7 further topics on this list — show them
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- Senegal382 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- Bitcoin37One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- Italy37One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
The world by category
- Politics164 topics
- Attention
- 25 below usual
- Mood
- −15 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 44 active
- Disagreement
- 68 clear disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 36 some movement
Best-supported question: If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms? opens in a new tab - Economy67 topics
- Attention
- 44 below usual
- Mood
- +17 more positive than usual
- Turbulence
- 34 calm
- Disagreement
- 63 clear disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 37 some movement
- Conflict35 topics
- Attention
- 37 below usual
- Mood
- −43 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 43 active
- Disagreement
- 47 some disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 40 some movement
- Technology41 topics
- Attention
- 26 below usual
- Mood
- +41 more positive than usual
- Turbulence
- 42 active
- Disagreement
- 61 clear disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 48 some movement
Best-supported question: Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026? opens in a new tab - AI19 topics
- Attention
- 37 below usual
- Mood
- +7 about as usual
- Turbulence
- 42 active
- Disagreement
- 40 some disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 48 some movement
- Crypto27 topics
- Attention
- 87 unusually high
- Mood
- −10 about as usual
- Turbulence
- 42 active
- Disagreement
- 80 strong disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 44 some movement
Best-supported question: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket] opens in a new tab - Climate21 topics
- Attention
- 40 below usual
- Mood
- −17 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 51 active
Best-supported question: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? opens in a new tab - Energy23 topics
- Attention
- 33 below usual
- Mood
- −24 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 42 active
- Forecast Movement
- 57 moving
Best-supported question: Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? opens in a new tab - Health35 topics
- Attention
- 43 below usual
- Mood
- +6 about as usual
- Turbulence
- 42 active
- Forecast Movement
- 41 some movement
Best-supported question: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket] opens in a new tab - Sports31 topics
- Attention
- 36 below usual
- Mood
- −35 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 39 calm
Best-supported question: Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026? opens in a new tab - Entertainment28 topics
- Attention
- 40 below usual
- Mood
- −35 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 38 calm
- Disagreement
- 50 clear disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 40 some movement
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 78%
- Coverage
- 73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 35 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 13 more seen and not scored; 79,190 items carried no identification
- 6 of 6 regions, over 124 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings