North America
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under north america. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
An unusually active day
- Attentionelevated
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Disagreementsome disagreement
- Forecast Movementmoving
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculated28% positive · 55% neutral · 17% negative
03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Forecast conditions
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
102 questions · 2 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
The last 24 hours, without the explanations
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 286 measurements were compared.
286 changes were compared. Not shown: 153 with nothing to compare against, 133 within their usual range.
Signals moving together
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 12.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractUS recession by end of 2026? from 23.5% to 11.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 60%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.0 pts over 24 hours, across 2 contractsWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 25.0%
- Public attention
- 0.5σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 40%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 3 contracts2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House from 52.5% to 57.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 25%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
2 further detections on this page — show them
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? from 46.0% to 54.5%
- Public attention
- 0.8σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 24%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
NARRATIVE GAP
News coverage rose while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Public attention
- -0.1σ from usual, 2 sources
- Coverage
- 7 separate reports, 5.3σ from usual
Strength within narrative gap: 66%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- The coverage baseline covers a short history.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
- One of the signals is older than its usual update interval.
Biggest movers
- about usual+14.9 ptsup over 24 hours
- NFL64about usual+9.1 ptsup over 24 hours
- elevated+6.9 ptsup over 24 hours
5 further topics moved less — show them
- below usual+6.1 ptsup over 24 hours
- unusually high+4.1 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+3.9 ptsup over 24 hours
- NBA53about usual+3.6 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+2.8 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
The world by category
- Politics8 topics
- Uncertainty
- 15 — low disagreement
Most followed question: Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Economy4 topics
- Uncertainty
- 20 — low disagreement
Most followed question: GDP growth in 2033?
- Conflict0 topicsNot measured yet
- Technology0 topicsNot measured yet
- AI0 topicsNot measured yet
- Crypto0 topicsNot measured yet
- Climate0 topicsNot measured yet
- Energy0 topicsNot measured yet
- Health0 topicsNot measured yet
- Sports5 topics
- Uncertainty
- 22 — low disagreement
- Entertainment0 topicsNot measured yet
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 77%
- Coverage
- 60% — 6 of 10 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 17 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 3 more seen and not scored; 362 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 17 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings