AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose sharply
7.2× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+38 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
North America
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under north america. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionbelow usual
- Moodmore negative than usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Disagreementclear disagreement
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention34below usual−3.2 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Mood−40more negative than usual−24.3 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 24% positive · 56% neutral · 20% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Turbulence53active±0.4 ptsunchanged over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Disagreement55clear disagreement+5.1 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement35some movement−15.1 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
97 questions · 3 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose sharply
5.9× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+23 mentionsup over a full day
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy
Discussion turned more negative sharply
4.3× its usual variation — much larger than usual
-29
−33.2 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
2 further changes on this page — show them
AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose
3.5× its usual variation — larger than usual
30views
+20 viewsup over the last 24 hours
Future Index
AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose sharply
3.9× its usual variation — much larger than usual
+37 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
450 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.3× its usual daily moveWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
- Public attention
- 6.6σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 38%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 2 contracts, 2.3× its usual daily moveWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
- Public attention
- 12.0σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 3 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 38%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily moveDid Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? opens in a new tab from 70.0% to 66.7%
- Public attention
- 5.9σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 16%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
1 further detection on this page — show it
CONFIRMED SHIFT
Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.
- Forecast
- 3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily moveDid Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? opens in a new tab from 70.0% to 66.7%
- Public attention
- 5.9σ from usual, 4 sources
How this was detected
Strength within confirmed shift: 16%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- elevated+16.2 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+13.2 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+10.7 ptsup over 24 hours
7 further topics moved less — show them
Trending topics
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
7 further topics on this list — show them
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
The world by category
- Politics30 topics
- Attention
- 38 below usual
- Mood
- −35 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 39 calm
- Disagreement
- 55 clear disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 34 some movement
Best-supported question: 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House opens in a new tab - Economy10 topics
- Mood
- −28 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 56 active
- Forecast Movement
- 43 some movement
Best-supported question: Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? opens in a new tab - Conflict2 topicsToo few topics measuredBest-supported question: US buys Greenland in 2026? opens in a new tab
- Technology0 topicsNot measured yet
- AI0 topicsNot measured yet
- Crypto0 topicsNot measured yet
- Climate0 topicsNot measured yet
- Energy0 topicsNot measured yet
- Health3 topics
- Attention
- 42 below usual
- Turbulence
- 44 active
- Sports5 topics
- Attention
- 36 below usual
- Mood
- −16 more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 39 calm
- Entertainment1 topicNot measured yet
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 78%
- Coverage
- 73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 22 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 6 more seen and not scored; 566 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 43 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings