Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Forecast probability fell
2.3× its usual variation — larger than usual
24%somewhat unlikely
−4.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
Politics
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under politics. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionabout usual
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulencecalm
- Disagreementclear disagreement
- Forecast Movementmoving
Attention63about usual+7.7 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Mood+7about as usual+1.5 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculated29% positive · 55% neutral · 16% negative
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Turbulence29calm−15.7 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Disagreement53clear disagreement−7.4 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement58moving−9.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
98 questions · 2 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
The last 24 hours, without the explanations
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
478 changes were compared. Not shown: 297 with nothing to compare against, 180 within their usual range.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 8.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 25.5%
- Public attention
- 7.2σ from usual, 2 sources
- Observed order
- 3 hours apart
Strength within early attention: 43%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? from 16.5% to 21.5%
- Public attention
- 5.8σ from usual, 2 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
Strength within early attention: 25%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 10.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 27.0%
- Public attention
- 0.5σ from usual, 1 source
Strength within quiet move: 45%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- One attention source stood behind this.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
3 further detections on this page — show them
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.0 pts over 24 hours, across 2 contractsWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 25.0%
- Public attention
- 0.5σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 40%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 3 contracts2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House from 52.5% to 57.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 25%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? from 46.0% to 54.5%
- Public attention
- 0.8σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 24%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- unusually high+28.4 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+20.7 ptsup over 24 hours
- Romania60about usual+20.5 ptsup over 24 hours
7 further topics moved less — show them
Trending topics
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- Ireland16One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 80%
- Coverage
- 60% — 6 of 10 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 17 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 5 more seen and not scored; 581 items carried no identification
- 6 of 6 regions, over 53 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings