US recession risk
Attention around US recession risk is about usual, and has fallen over the last 24 hours.
EconomyUS
Signals
- −5.7 ptsdown over 24 hoursAttention52about usual
00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
09-1009-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-16
08-2008-2709-0309-10
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 60about usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 47about usualPublic discussionHacker News
- 37below usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Medium confidence0.55Up to date3 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion1
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 64 measurements were compared.
64 changes were compared. Not shown: 43 with nothing to compare against, 21 within their usual range.
Across signals
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 12.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractUS recession by end of 2026? from 23.5% to 11.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 60%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Nothing was reported on US recession risk in the last 7 days.
Forecast contracts
The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.
Showing 3 of 89; 86 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.
- 49%about even+17.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 11%unlikely−5.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 12%unlikely+4.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Sources
3 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion45%46.7
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%37.5
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity45%59.7
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say