Anthropic
Attention around Anthropic is about usual, and has fallen over the last 24 hours.
AIGLOBAL
Signals
- Attention59about usual−7.4 ptsdown over 24 hours
09:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 62about usualPublic discussionMastodon
- 59about usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 57about usualPublic discussionLemmy
- 56about usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 51about usualPublic discussionHacker News
Medium confidence0.47Up to date5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 15 measurements were compared.
15 changes were compared.
Across signals
CONFIRMED SHIFT
Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.
- Forecast
- 25.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? opens in a new tab from 57.2% to 82.2%
- Public attention
- 8.9σ from usual, 5 sources
How this was detected
Strength within confirmed shift: 100%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 25.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? opens in a new tab from 57.2% to 82.2%
- Public attention
- 6.3σ from usual, 5 sources
- Observed order
- 2 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 79%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
1 independent origin · low confidence
CoinDesk
Anthropic's path to the Nasdaq just got a lot bumpier opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
1 independent origin · low confidence
TechCrunch
5 further occurrences on this page — show them
The big questions remaining after Anthropic’s blockbuster IPO prospectus opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
Anthropic is asking Wall Street to believe in AGI opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
The Verge
Anthropic’s business plan: Build God or die trying opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
The Verge
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei charts a new direction for tech philanthropy opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
Anthropic’s public benefit structure creates unusual risks for IPO investors opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
What people are discussing
Posts and shared links on the discussion platforms this site reads that are about this topic, over the last two days, the most discussed first. Titles are the platform's own. Counts are the platform's where it publishes them, and otherwise the comments or shares this site read; none of it is a figure this site calculates.
Backdoors in official Claude Code extensions opens in a new tab
Anthropic may not secure investment-grade rating after IPO, Blackstone says opens in a new tab
Anthropic Cracking Down on Video Game Rewrites opens in a new tab
7 more posts — show them
Anthropic takes steps to block Claude from reverse-engineering video games opens in a new tab
Why Anthropic's filing crushed tech stocks opens in a new tab
Anthropic to receive high 'junk' rating from credit agencies following IPO opens in a new tab
Anthropic hacked to deliver remote access trojan opens in a new tab
Anthropic quietly bans recreating existing games in Claude Code opens in a new tab
AI startup hacks Anthropic, gains access to employee details, internal messages opens in a new tab
Forecast contracts
One row per source's own question. These are listed side by side for comparison and are not combined into a single figure — each source is answering its own question, in its own words.
- 54%about even−5.4 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 10%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first? opens in a new tab
Outcome: Anthropic
98%very likely−1.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
6 further contracts on this topic — show them
- 4%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 91%likely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 42%about even±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 64%somewhat likely±0.1 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 82%likely+25.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? opens in a new tab
Outcome: OpenAI
5%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
Related topics
Relations a person stated, each with a reason. Every topic keeps its own figures; nothing here is combined.
Sources
5 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion20%50.5
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%56.1
- LemmyPublic discussion20%57.4
- MastodonPublic discussion20%61.6
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity30%58.8
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 3.0.0 · What these figures do not say
Readers' discussion on this site
Comments from readers of this site, newest first. They are opinions, not a measurement: no figure on this page is computed from them.
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