Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon
Discussion turned more negative
2.8× its usual variation — larger than usual
-15
−25.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Brazil
Attention around Brazil is below usual, and has fallen over the last 24 hours.
PoliticsBR
Signals
- Attention41below usual−4.0 ptsdown over 24 hours
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 62about usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 48about usualPublic discussionLemmy
- 47about usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 34below usualPublic discussionHacker News
- 29below usualPublic discussionMastodon
Medium confidence0.44Up to date5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
8 changes were compared.
Across signals
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 59.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 3.2× its usual daily move
- Public attention
- 11.5σ from usual, 5 sources
- Observed order
- 21 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 100%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Brazil's new anti-gang law: Can it curb organized crime? opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
Deutsche Welle
Trump says won’t ‘take sides’ in Brazil election, but calls it a ‘disgrace’ opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
Al Jazeera English
Flávio Bolsonaro calls himself 'leader of Brazil' after election loss opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
BBC News
5 further occurrences on this page — show them
1 independent origin · low confidence
Carbon Brief
Flavio Bolsonaro lands in US, declares himself 'leader' of Brazil opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
Deutsche Welle
What’s next for Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro after election defeat? opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
Al Jazeera English
Flávio Bolsonaro lands in Miami after defeat in Brazil's presidential election opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
BBC News
What we know as Flávio Bolsonaro lands in US after Brazil election loss opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
BBC News
What people are discussing
Posts and shared links on the discussion platforms this site reads that are about this topic, over the last two days, the most discussed first. Titles are the platform's own. Counts are the platform's where it publishes them, and otherwise the comments or shares this site read; none of it is a figure this site calculates.
Flavio Bolsonaro says he left Brazil because he is the victim of 'persecution' opens in a new tab
Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro isolated, ridiculed after self-exile opens in a new tab
Trump Team Arranged Private Jet to Help Bolsonaro Flee Brazil opens in a new tab
7 more posts — show them
Rubio says U.S. not directly involved in Flavio Bolsonaro’s flight from Brazil opens in a new tab
Flavio Bolsonaro says he may run again for Brazilian presidency opens in a new tab
Flávio Bolsonaro vows to continue father’s political fight in Brazil opens in a new tab
Brazil summons Argentinian diplomat over Bolsonaro’s flight to US opens in a new tab
Forecast contracts
One row per source's own question. These are listed side by side for comparison and are not combined into a single figure — each source is answering its own question, in its own words.
- 100%very likely+79.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
18 further contracts on this topic — show them
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.1 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely−79.5 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 99%very likely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely−5.7 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.1 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
Sources
5 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion20%33.6
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%61.7
- LemmyPublic discussion20%47.8
- MastodonPublic discussion20%28.9
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity30%46.6
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 3.0.0 · What these figures do not say
Readers' discussion on this site
Comments from readers of this site, newest first. They are opinions, not a measurement: no figure on this page is computed from them.
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