AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
4.1× its usual variation — much larger than usual
60
+60 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
Hacker News
Brazil
Attention around Brazil is elevated, and has risen over the last 24 hours.
PoliticsBR
Signals
- +23.9 ptsup over 24 hoursAttention67elevated
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
09-1009-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-16
08-2008-2709-0309-10
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 89unusually highPublic discussionHacker News
- 48about usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 47about usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
Medium confidence0.52Up to date3 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion1
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
29 changes were compared. Not shown: 17 with nothing to compare against, 11 within their usual range.
Across signals
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 5.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract
- Public attention
- 7.7σ from usual, 2 sources
- Observed order
- 14 hours apart
Strength within early attention: 28%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Flavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe weeks before Brazil election
2 independent origins · medium confidence
Reports
- News contextFlavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe weeks before Brazil election opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
- News contextBrazil: Flavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe weeks before election opens in a new tabDeutsche Welle
Al Jazeera English
Deutsche Welle
Brazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextBrazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Last dance?
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextLast dance? Inside Lula’s strategy to win a fourth presidency in Brazil opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Forecast contracts
The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.
Showing 3 of 25; 22 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.
- 54%about even+2.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 7%unlikely−1.5 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 45%about even−1.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Sources
3 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion45%88.6
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%47.5
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity45%46.8
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say