AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
5.6× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+16 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
Democratic Party (US)
Attention around Democratic Party (US) is about usual, and has fallen over the last 24 hours.
The US Democratic Party, its leadership, its primaries and its internal fights.
PoliticsUS
Signals
- Attention64about usual−7.3 ptsdown over 24 hoursNo history yet
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 94unusually highPublic discussionHacker News
- 71elevatedSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 67elevatedPublic discussionLemmy
- 42below usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 19very quietPublic discussionMastodon
Low confidence0.37Up to date5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
29 changes were compared.
Across signals
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.3× its usual daily moveWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
- Public attention
- 6.6σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 38%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Can Democrats win the US Senate? 10 key midterm races to watch opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
Al Jazeera English
Democrats have an identity crisis - it won't be an easy fix opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
BBC News
Four investigations Democrats could launch if they win Congress opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
BBC News
5 further occurrences on this page — show them
Here's how Democrats in Congress are preparing for election fraud claims opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
NPR
One week out, prediction markets see Democrats as favored to sweep Congress opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
1 independent origin · low confidence
MarketWatch
1 independent origin · low confidence
NPR
1 independent origin · low confidence
NPR
What people are discussing
Posts and shared links on the discussion platforms this site reads that are about this topic, over the last two days, the most discussed first. Titles are the platform's own. Counts are the platform's where it publishes them, and otherwise the comments or shares this site read; none of it is a figure this site calculates.
Why aren’t Democrats talking about climate? opens in a new tab
Democrats Demand Answers on What Trump Is Telling AI Chatbots opens in a new tab
List of Democrats who did not sign letter against Ilhan Omar investigation opens in a new tab
7 more posts — show them
Democrats' Secret Effort to Stack Alaska's Ballot opens in a new tab
Kamala Harris Advises Democrats Not To Impeach Trump opens in a new tab
As Trump escalates extreme attacks, Democrats – finally – rally round El-Sayed opens in a new tab
Democrats Have an Islamophobia Problem Too opens in a new tab
Democrats Demand Answers on What Trump Is Telling AI Chatbots opens in a new tab
Forecast contracts
One row per source's own question. These are listed side by side for comparison and are not combined into a single figure — each source is answering its own question, in its own words.
- 95%likely+1.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 65%somewhat likely+0.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 79%somewhat likely+2.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
17 further contracts on this topic — show them
- 93%likelyNo movement recorded over 24 hours
- 59%about even±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 95%very likely±0.4 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 15%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 70%somewhat likely−1.2 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 85%likely+1.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 70%somewhat likely+1.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 73%somewhat likely±0.4 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 80%somewhat likely−1.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 74%somewhat likelyNo movement recorded over 24 hours
- 70%somewhat likely+2.4 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 10%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 71%somewhat likely−1.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 35%somewhat unlikely+3.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 72%somewhat likely+1.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 35%somewhat unlikely−2.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 78%somewhat likely+3.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Related topics
Relations a person stated, each with a reason. Every topic keeps its own figures; nothing here is combined.
Sources
5 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion20%94.3
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%41.6
- LemmyPublic discussion20%66.6
- MastodonPublic discussion20%19.2
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity30%70.9
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 3.0.0 · What these figures do not say
Readers' discussion on this site
Comments from readers of this site, newest first. They are opinions, not a measurement: no figure on this page is computed from them.
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