Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Forecast probability fell
2.3× its usual variation — larger than usual
24%somewhat unlikely
−4.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
The last 24 hours
Measured over the 24 hours to . The readings below are the state now; every comparison is against 24 hours earlier. A trailing window rather than a calendar day.
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionabout usual
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulencecalm
- Disagreementclear disagreement
- Forecast Movementmoving
World conditions
Attention55about usual+12.2 ptsup over 24 hours
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
3 sources · 205 items · high confidence (0.75) · 24 hoursUp to date
Mood−4about as usual+32.9 ptsup over 24 hours
30% positive · 53% neutral · 17% negative
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
2 sources · 5415 items · high confidence (0.96) · 24 hoursUp to date
Turbulence36calm+0.9 ptsup over 24 hours
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
5 sources · 1154 items · high confidence (0.94) · 24 hoursUp to date
Disagreement53clear disagreement−10.1 ptsdown over 24 hours
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
2 sources · 3793 items · medium confidence (0.41) · 24 hoursUp to date
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement56moving+1.9 ptsup over 24 hours
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
167 questions · 2 sources · 167 items · high confidence (0.94) · 24 hoursUp to date
What changed
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Forecast probability rose
2.1× its usual variation — larger than usual
4%very unlikely
+1.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
721 changes were compared. Not shown: 389 with nothing to compare against, 330 within their usual range.
Data conditions
measurement quality 80% · coverage 60% (6 of 10 sources reporting) · up to date · moderate sample