Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Forecast probability rose
2.1× its usual variation — larger than usual
4%very unlikely
+1.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
Sports
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under sports. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionabout usual
- Moodmore negative than usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Forecast Movementmoving
Attention52about usual+9.8 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Mood−31more negative than usual−7.7 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculated33% positive · 34% neutral · 33% negative
06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Turbulence41active+9.1 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
DisagreementNot yet
Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement61moving+12.7 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
2 questions · 1 source
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
The last 24 hours, without the explanations
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
81 changes were compared. Not shown: 51 with nothing to compare against, 29 within their usual range.
Signals moving together
No relationships between signals were detected in this window. A detection needs two layers to have moved measurably over the same topic.
Biggest movers
- about usual+11.3 ptsup over 24 hours
- NFL64about usual+9.1 ptsup over 24 hours
- NBA55about usual+7.4 ptsup over 24 hours
2 further topics moved less — show them
- Cricket97unusually high+6.3 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+3.5 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
- Cricket16One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 64%
- Coverage
- 40% — 4 of 10 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Limited
- 2 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored
- 1 of 6 regions, over 5 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings