AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose
2.2× its usual variation — larger than usual
10views
+8 viewsup over the last 24 hours
Future Index
Sports
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under sports. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionbelow usual
- Moodmore negative than usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention36below usual−5.8 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
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Mood−35more negative than usual−31.1 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 17% positive · 75% neutral · 9% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
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Turbulence50active+14.9 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
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DisagreementNot yet
Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement42some movement+4.4 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
1 question · 1 source
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
AttentionPublic discussionMastodon
Attention rose
2.1× its usual variation — larger than usual
3mentions
+2 mentionsup over a full day
195 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.8 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily move
- Public attention
- 12.0σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 7 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 19%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
CONFIRMED SHIFT
Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.
- Forecast
- 3.8 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily move
- Public attention
- 12.0σ from usual, 4 sources
How this was detected
Strength within confirmed shift: 19%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- about usual+13.4 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+11.2 ptsup over 24 hours
- Cricket64about usual+5.1 ptsup over 24 hours
4 further topics moved less — show them
- below usual+4.7 ptsup over 24 hours
- below usual+4.3 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+3.6 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+3.1 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- Olympics20One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
3 further topics on this list — show them
- Cricket15One kind of source is unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 59%
- Coverage
- 55% — 6 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Out of date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 7 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 41 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 5 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings