AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
12.0× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+223 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
Crypto
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under crypto. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
An unusually active day
- Attentionunusually high
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Disagreementstrong disagreement
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention87unusually high−4.4 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Mood−10about as usual−5.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 23% positive · 52% neutral · 25% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Turbulence49active−1.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Disagreement80strong disagreement+18.0 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement44some movement−15.3 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
11 questions · 2 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionHacker News
Discussion turned more positive sharply
4.5× its usual variation — much larger than usual
32
+27.4 ptsup over the last 24 hours
AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose
2.2× its usual variation — larger than usual
10views
+8 viewsup over a full day
Future Index
1 further change on this page — show it
AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose
2.8× its usual variation — larger than usual
+2 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
149 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 4.1 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 3.0× its usual daily moveBitcoin below $55K in 2026? opens in a new tab from 7.4% to 11.5%
- Public attention
- 8.5σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 18 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 20%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- about usual+26.8 ptsup over 24 hours
- elevated+22.0 ptsup over 24 hours
- elevated+16.9 ptsup over 24 hours
3 further topics moved less — show them
- about usual+9.2 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+4.7 ptsup over 24 hours
- Solana51about usual+2.4 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- Bitcoin37One kind of source is unusually busy with this
4 further topics on this list — show them
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 73%
- Coverage
- 64% — 7 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 3 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 60 items carried no identification
- every subject behind these figures is global in scope
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings