Future Index

Topics

Association football

Attention around Association football is below usual, and has fallen over the last 24 hours.

SportsGLOBAL

Signals

What moved

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket

    Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

    Forecast probability rose

    2.5× its usual variation — larger than usual

    3%very unlikely

    +0.7 ptsup over the last 24 hours

    High confidence0.84Up to date

    Polymarket

28 changes were compared. Not shown: 11 with nothing to compare against, 16 within their usual range.

Across signals

  1. QUIET MOVE

    Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.

    Association football

    Forecast
    5.2 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract
    Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? from 59.1% to 53.9%
    Public attention
    0.6σ from usual, 2 sources

    Strength within quiet move: 26%

    • Public discussionhackernews
    • Search & activityinternal_analytics
    • Forecast marketspolymarket

    Medium confidence

    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

What was reported

Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.

  1. FIFA to present review of Infantino’s shelved investment plan to Council

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Real Madrid stars appear to hide Ceuta solidarity message

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Why are Man Utd better without the ball?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

5 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. 'Superstar' Dowman shows his class - but Arsenal know caution is needed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Champions League final venues revealed: Munich 2028, Barcelona 2029

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Youth star JJ Gabriel, 15, on brink of leaving Man Utd

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  4. Spurs' Richarlison posts crying emoji after being left out of Liverpool tie

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  5. Leeds United defeat Newcastle 4-1 to go third in Premier League

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Forecast contracts

The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.

Showing 3 of 31; 28 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.

Show all 31 contracts

Sources

3 contributing sources — view breakdown

Attention

  • Hacker NewsPublic discussion31.0
  • Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity54.5
  • Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity57.8

How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say