AttentionPublic discussionLemmy
Attention rose sharply
5.5× its usual variation — far larger than usual
82mentions
+51 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
Middle East
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under middle east. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
An unusually active day
- Attentionbelow usual
- Moodmuch more negative than usual
- Turbulenceturbulent
- Disagreementsome disagreement
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention43below usual−13.3 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Mood−68much more negative than usual−22.1 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 16% positive · 55% neutral · 29% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Turbulence61turbulent+6.7 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Disagreement45some disagreement−10.1 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Disagreement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement41some movement−14.8 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
27 questions · 3 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose sharply
4.4× its usual variation — much larger than usual
25views
+22 viewsup over a full day
Future Index
AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose
2.4× its usual variation — larger than usual
26views
+22 viewsup over a full day
Future Index
2 further changes on this page — show them
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon
Discussion turned more positive sharply
4.1× its usual variation — much larger than usual
58
+65.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon
Discussion turned more negative
2.8× its usual variation — larger than usual
-32
−27.9 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
119 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 4.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027? opens in a new tab from 9.0% to 13.0%
- Public attention
- 5.1σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 9 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 20%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- Jordan46about usual+11.0 ptsup over 24 hours
- Iraq50about usual+8.2 ptsup over 24 hours
- below usual+4.3 ptsup over 24 hours
1 further topic moved less — show it
- Syria50about usual+3.3 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
- Iran25One kind of source is unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
The world by category
- Politics8 topics
- Attention
- 44 below usual
- Mood
- +29 more positive than usual
- Turbulence
- 44 active
Best-supported question: Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? opens in a new tab - Economy0 topicsNot measured yet
- Conflict5 topics
- Mood
- −67 much more negative than usual
- Turbulence
- 48 active
- Disagreement
- 45 some disagreement
- Forecast Movement
- 42 some movement
Best-supported question: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? opens in a new tab - Technology0 topicsNot measured yet
- AI0 topicsNot measured yet
- Crypto0 topicsNot measured yet
- Climate0 topicsNot measured yet
- Energy2 topicsToo few topics measuredBest-supported question: Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? opens in a new tab
- Health0 topicsNot measured yet
- Sports0 topicsNot measured yet
- Entertainment0 topicsNot measured yet
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 73%
- Coverage
- 73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 18 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 2 more seen and not scored; 126 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 13 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings