What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

1. Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket

   Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

   Forecast probability fell

   2.3× its usual variation — larger than usual

   24%somewhat unlikely

   ▼−4.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours

   High confidence0.89Up to date

   Polymarket

2. Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket

   Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

   Forecast probability rose

   2.1× its usual variation — larger than usual

   4%very unlikely

   ▲+1.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours

   High confidence0.86Up to date

   Polymarket

721 changes were compared. Not shown: 389 with nothing to compare against, 330 within their usual range.