Future Index

Technology

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under technology. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention26below usual+1.4 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.75
5 sourcesPublic discussion3Search & activity2
41 items
Mood+50much more positive than usual+7.0 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

Right now 33% positive · 52% neutral · 15% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.91
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
586 items
Turbulence52active+9.4 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

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10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.92
8 sourcesForecast markets3Public discussion3Search & activity2
203 items
Disagreement72clear disagreement+26.1 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

Low confidence0.24
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
203 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement48some movement+5.5 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.89
3 sourcesForecast markets3
29 items

29 questions · 3 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews

    Robotics

    Attention rose sharply

    4.3× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    24views

    +21 viewsup over a full day

    High confidence0.77Up to date

    Future Index

  2. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy

    Tesla

    Discussion turned more positive sharply

    4.9× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    58

    +51.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.44Up to date

  3. AttentionPublic discussionLemmy

    Semiconductors

    Attention rose

    2.7× its usual variation — larger than usual

    100mentions

    +95 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.57Up to date

2 further changes on this page — show them

  1. AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews

    Telecoms and 5G

    Attention rose

    2.0× its usual variation — larger than usual

    27views

    +22 viewsup over a full day

    Medium confidence0.61Up to date

    Future Index

  2. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon

    Starlink and satellite internet

    Discussion turned more positive sharply

    3.9× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    32

    +40.1 ptsup over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.44Up to date

270 changes were compared.

All changes today

Signals moving together

  1. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Tesla

    Forecast
    3.1 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.0× its usual daily move
    Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027? opens in a new tab from 3.8% to 6.9%
    Public attention
    5.5σ from usual, 5 sources
    Observed order
    14 hours apart

    Observed Oct 27, 03:01 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within early attention: 16%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

  2. CONFIRMED SHIFT

    Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.

    Tesla

    Forecast
    3.9 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.4× its usual daily move
    Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027? opens in a new tab from 3.7% to 7.6%
    Public attention
    5.5σ from usual, 5 sources

    Observed Oct 26, 13:01 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within confirmed shift: 19%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

Biggest movers

  1. Data privacy52
    about usual
    +10.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology
    • Politics
  2. Longevity science50
    about usual
    +8.6 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Health
    • Technology
  3. IBM58
    about usual
    +5.9 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology
5 further topics moved less — show them
  1. Alibaba51
    about usual
    +5.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology
  2. Salesforce50
    about usual
    +4.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology
  3. Huawei52
    about usual
    +2.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology
  4. Tencent50
    about usual
    +2.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology
  5. Uber48
    about usual
    +2.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Technology

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. ByteDance23
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
  2. Semiconductors19
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  3. Meta16
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Read here
    • Reported
1 further topic on this list — show it
  1. Data privacy16
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
74%
Coverage
73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 16 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 6 more seen and not scored; 192 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 8 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings