Future Index

Europe

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under europe. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

An unusually active day

Attention72elevated+23.6 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.72
2 sourcesSearch & activity2
21 items
Mood−22more negative than usual+7.1 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

24% positive · 57% neutral · 19% negative

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.89
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
309 items
Turbulence36calm−19.4 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.88
4 sourcesForecast markets2Search & activity2
71 items
Disagreement50some disagreement−14.9 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Low confidence0.34
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
168 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement38some movement−37.0 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.90
2 sourcesForecast markets2
9 items

9 questions · 2 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

The last 24 hours, without the explanations

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 151 measurements were compared.

151 changes were compared. Not shown: 102 with nothing to compare against, 49 within their usual range.

All changes today

Signals moving together

  1. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Germany

    Forecast
    5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract
    Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? from 16.5% to 21.5%
    Public attention
    5.8σ from usual, 2 sources
    Observed order
    19 hours apart

    Strength within early attention: 25%

    • Public discussionhackernews
    • Search & activityinternal_analytics
    • Forecast marketspolymarket

    High confidence

    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

Biggest movers

  1. United Kingdom98
    unusually high
    +28.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  2. Romania60
    about usual
    +20.5 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  3. Ireland95
    unusually high
    +19.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
7 further topics moved less — show them
  1. Bank of England71
    elevated
    +14.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Economy
  2. Nordic countries64
    about usual
    +8.5 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  3. Russia57
    about usual
    +7.6 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  4. Spain60
    about usual
    +7.6 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  5. France59
    about usual
    +7.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  6. Switzerland52
    about usual
    +6.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  7. Greece61
    about usual
    +2.9 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. United Kingdom24
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Looked up
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  2. Ireland16
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Looked up
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

The world by category

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
75%
Coverage
60% — 6 of 10 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 10 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 1 more seen and not scored; 101 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 21 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings