Future Index

Economy

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under economy. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention44below usual−18.5 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.76
5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
67 items
Mood+22more positive than usual+1.0 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

Right now 29% positive · 54% neutral · 17% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.92
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
785 items
Turbulence41active−13.8 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.91
8 sourcesForecast markets3Search & activity2Public discussion3
341 items
Disagreement64clear disagreement−1.8 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

Low confidence0.27
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
551 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement45some movement−14.4 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.91
3 sourcesForecast markets3
52 items

52 questions · 3 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. AttentionPublic discussionHacker News

    Private credit and private equity

    Attention rose sharply

    6.6× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    +52 mentionsup over a full day

    Medium confidence0.68Up to date

  2. AttentionPublic discussionLemmy

    US recession risk

    Attention rose sharply

    7.2× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    +38 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.57Up to date

  3. AttentionPublic discussionHacker News

    Equity markets

    Attention rose

    3.0× its usual variation — larger than usual

    130mentions

    +125 mentionsup over a full day

    High confidence1.00Up to date

2 further changes on this page — show them

  1. AttentionPublic discussionHacker News

    AI and work

    Attention rose sharply

    5.9× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    +8 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

    High confidence0.97Up to date

  2. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy

    Tariffs and trade policy

    Discussion turned more negative sharply

    8.3× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    -76

    −80.6 ptsdown over the last 24 hours

    Low confidence0.34Up to date

379 changes were compared.

All changes today

Signals moving together

  1. NARRATIVE GAP

    News coverage rose while public attention stayed at its usual level.

    Pharmaceutical industry

    Public attention
    0.9σ from usual, 4 sources
    Coverage
    6 separate reports, 5.2σ from usual

    Observed Oct 29, 18:00 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within narrative gap: 10%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • The coverage baseline covers a short history.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

  2. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Equity markets

    Forecast
    25.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily move
    Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? opens in a new tab from 57.2% to 82.2%
    Public attention
    8.3σ from usual, 5 sources
    Observed order
    21 hours apart

    Observed Oct 26, 15:00 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within early attention: 100%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

  3. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    AI investment

    Forecast
    3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily move
    Will there be an AI bubble before 2030? opens in a new tab from 68.6% to 71.9%
    Public attention
    5.4σ from usual, 4 sources
    Observed order
    23 hours apart

    Observed Oct 28, 08:01 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within early attention: 17%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
1 further detection on this page — show it

  1. CONFIRMED SHIFT

    Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.

    Equity markets

    Forecast
    25.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily move
    Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? opens in a new tab from 57.2% to 82.2%
    Public attention
    9.5σ from usual, 5 sources

    Observed Oct 27, 12:00 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within confirmed shift: 100%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • Search & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

Biggest movers

  1. US recession risk71
    elevated
    +16.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
  2. US Social Security64
    about usual
    +13.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
    • Economy
  3. Sanctions on Russia49
    about usual
    +8.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
    • Politics
7 further topics moved less — show them
  1. AI and work61
    about usual
    +8.0 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • AI
    • Economy
  2. Bank of England56
    about usual
    +6.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
  3. Inequality and poverty54
    about usual
    +6.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
  4. G7 and G2068
    elevated
    +5.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
    • Politics
  5. Pharmaceutical industry45
    below usual
    +5.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Health
    • Economy
  6. India's economy39
    below usual
    +4.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
  7. Banking sector49
    about usual
    +4.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. ECB and the euro area40
    2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
  2. Equity markets34
    2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • Reported
  3. AI and work31
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
5 further topics on this list — show them
  1. US recession risk31
    2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  2. Private credit and private equity30
    2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  3. US Social Security22
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Reported
  4. Global economy22
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  5. Inequality and poverty16
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
75%
Coverage
73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 14 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 5 more seen and not scored; 308 items carried no identification
  • 3 of 6 regions, over 26 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings