AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
8.8× its usual variation — far larger than usual
+17 mentionsup over a full day
Epstein files
Attention around Epstein files is about usual, and has risen over the last 24 hours.
The release of government records about Jeffrey Epstein and the fallout from them.
PoliticsUS
Signals
- Attention62about usual+6.4 ptsup over 24 hoursNo history yet
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 98unusually highPublic discussionHacker News
- 59about usualPublic discussionLemmy
- 53about usualPublic discussionMastodon
- 49about usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 44below usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
Low confidence0.36Up to date5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
12 changes were compared.
Across signals
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily moveDid Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? opens in a new tab from 70.0% to 66.7%
- Public attention
- 5.9σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 20 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 16%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
CONFIRMED SHIFT
Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.
- Forecast
- 3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily moveDid Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? opens in a new tab from 70.0% to 66.7%
- Public attention
- 5.9σ from usual, 4 sources
How this was detected
Strength within confirmed shift: 16%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Forecast marketsManifold Markets
- Public discussionMastodon
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
1 independent origin · low confidence
BBC News
Trump DOJ unlawfully fired Epstein prosecutor Maurene Comey, judge rules opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
What people are discussing
Posts and shared links on the discussion platforms this site reads that are about this topic, over the last two days, the most discussed first. Titles are the platform's own. Counts are the platform's where it publishes them, and otherwise the comments or shares this site read; none of it is a figure this site calculates.
Why Is the Media Ignoring the Stunning New Trump-Epstein Allegations? opens in a new tab
House Democrats call on DOJ to name special counsel in Epstein case opens in a new tab
7 more posts — show them
Massie, Khanna, and Others Introduce the "Epstein Files Transparency Act II" opens in a new tab
Introducing the "Epstein Files Transparency Act II" opens in a new tab
Massie, Khanna, and Others Introduce the "Epstein Files Transparency Act II" opens in a new tab
Trump decides to riff about Jeffrey Epstein in Ohio while stumping for midterms opens in a new tab
Why Is the Media Ignoring the Stunning New Trump-Epstein Allegations? opens in a new tab
Forecast contracts
One row per source's own question. These are listed side by side for comparison and are not combined into a single figure — each source is answering its own question, in its own words.
- 5%very unlikely+1.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 8%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 67%somewhat likely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
Sources
5 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion20%98.2
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%48.8
- LemmyPublic discussion20%59.3
- MastodonPublic discussion20%52.6
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity30%43.8
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 3.0.0 · What these figures do not say
Readers' discussion on this site
Comments from readers of this site, newest first. They are opinions, not a measurement: no figure on this page is computed from them.
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