Future Index

Politics in Europe

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under politics in europe. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

An unusually active day

Attention39below usual−1.4 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.77
5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
44 items
Mood−9about as usual+9.0 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

Right now 27% positive · 52% neutral · 20% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.94
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
1,035 items
Turbulence63turbulent+14.1 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.92
8 sourcesForecast markets3Search & activity2Public discussion3
219 items
Disagreement63clear disagreement+18.4 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

Low confidence0.31
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
282 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement45some movement+2.6 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.90
3 sourcesForecast markets3
33 items

33 questions · 3 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. AttentionPublic discussionHacker News

    Italy

    Attention rose sharply

    8.8× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    +14 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

    Coincided with a change in discussion sentiment.

  2. AttentionPublic discussionHacker News

    Serbia

    Attention rose sharply

    4.6× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    333mentions

    +332 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

  3. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy

    Italy

    Discussion turned more negative sharply

    4.7× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    -58

    −66.6 ptsdown over the last 24 hours

    Coincided with a change in attention.

2 further changes on this page — show them
  1. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon

    The papacy

    Discussion turned more positive sharply

    3.7× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    14

    +12.4 ptsup over the last 24 hours

    Coincided with a change in attention.

  2. AttentionPublic discussionMastodon

    Germany

    Attention rose sharply

    4.1× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    33mentions

    +16 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

308 changes were compared.

All changes today

Signals moving together

No relationships between signals were detected this week. Checked 44 topics: 1 had a forecast contract moving well outside its usual range and 14 had unusually high public attention, and none of them showed a second layer doing something measurable at the same time.

Biggest movers

  1. about usual
    +13.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  2. about usual
    +11.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  3. about usual
    +11.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
7 further topics moved less — show them
  1. about usual
    +9.5 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  2. about usual
    +8.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Economy
    • Politics
  3. about usual
    +7.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  4. elevated
    +6.6 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  5. about usual
    +6.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  6. about usual
    +5.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  7. about usual
    +5.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
  2. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
  3. 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
7 further topics on this list — show them
  1. 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  2. 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  3. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
  4. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  5. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
  6. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  7. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
77%
Coverage
73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 12 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 6 more seen and not scored; 338 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 44 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings