Future Index

Politics in Europe

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under politics in europe. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention60about usual+19.6 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.69
2 sourcesSearch & activity2
18 items
Mood−20more negative than usual+8.8 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

25% positive · 56% neutral · 19% negative

06:0012:0018:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.89
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
284 items
Turbulence41active16.3 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.88
4 sourcesForecast markets2Search & activity2
64 items
Disagreement42some disagreement19.1 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Low confidence0.29
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
123 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement38some movement36.9 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.90
2 sourcesForecast markets2
9 items

9 questions · 2 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

The last 24 hours, without the explanations

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 148 measurements were compared.

148 changes were compared. Not shown: 99 with nothing to compare against, 49 within their usual range.

All changes today

Signals moving together

  1. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Germany

    Forecast
    5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract
    Public attention
    5.8σ from usual, 2 sources
    Observed order
    20 hours apart

    Strength within early attention: 25%

    • Public discussionhackernews
    • Search & activityinternal_analytics
    • Forecast marketspolymarket
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

Biggest movers

  1. unusually high
    +27.9 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  2. about usual
    +20.0 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  3. unusually high
    +19.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
7 further topics moved less — show them
  1. about usual
    +12.6 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  2. about usual
    +9.5 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  3. about usual
    +7.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  4. about usual
    +6.9 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  5. about usual
    +5.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  6. about usual
    +3.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics
  7. about usual
    +2.9 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Politics

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Looked up
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  2. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Looked up
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
73%
Coverage
60% — 6 of 10 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 10 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 1 more seen and not scored; 95 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 18 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings