AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose sharply
4.4× its usual variation — much larger than usual
25views
+22 viewsup over a full day
Future Index
Politics in Middle East
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under politics in middle east. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionbelow usual
- Moodmore positive than usual
- Turbulenceactive
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention44below usual−37.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
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10-0810-1510-2210-29
Mood+29more positive than usual+13.6 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 35% positive · 47% neutral · 19% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Turbulence56active+5.7 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
DisagreementNot yet
Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement43some movement−19.3 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
3 questions · 1 source
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Attention rose
2.4× its usual variation — larger than usual
26views
+22 viewsup over a full day
Future Index
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon
Discussion turned more positive sharply
4.1× its usual variation — much larger than usual
58
+65.2 ptsup over the last 24 hours
1 further change on this page — show it
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionMastodon
Discussion turned more negative
2.8× its usual variation — larger than usual
-32
−27.9 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
47 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 4.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027? opens in a new tab from 9.0% to 13.0%
- Public attention
- 5.1σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 9 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 20%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
Trending topics
- 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 61%
- Coverage
- 55% — 6 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Moderate
- 4 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 2 more seen and not scored; 8 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 8 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings