Future Index

Politics in North America

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under politics in north america. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention38below usual±0.2 ptsunchanged over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.78
5 sourcesPublic discussion3Search & activity2
30 items
Mood−34more negative than usual−16.7 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

Right now 22% positive · 59% neutral · 19% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.92
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
1,255 items
Turbulence52active+1.5 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.94
8 sourcesForecast markets3Public discussion3Search & activity2
240 items
Disagreement54clear disagreement+0.9 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

Low confidence0.38
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
755 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement35some movement−8.8 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.92
3 sourcesForecast markets3
73 items

73 questions · 3 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. AttentionPublic discussionLemmy

    US federal courts

    Attention rose sharply

    5.9× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    +23 mentionsup over a full day

    Medium confidence0.57Up to date

  2. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy

    US presidency

    Discussion turned more negative sharply

    4.3× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    -29

    −33.2 ptsdown over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.54Up to date

  3. AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews

    US gun policy

    Attention rose

    3.5× its usual variation — larger than usual

    30views

    +20 viewsup over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.60Up to date

    Future Index

2 further changes on this page — show them

  1. AttentionPublic discussionLemmy

    Opioid crisis

    Attention rose sharply

    3.9× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    +37 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

    Medium confidence0.57Up to date

  2. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy

    Canada

    Discussion turned more positive

    3.1× its usual variation — larger than usual

    18

    +11.6 ptsup over the last 24 hours

    High confidence0.76Up to date

320 changes were compared.

All changes today

Signals moving together

  1. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Democratic Party (US)

    Forecast
    7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.3× its usual daily move
    Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
    Public attention
    6.6σ from usual, 4 sources
    Observed order
    20 hours apart

    Observed Oct 31, 17:22 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within early attention: 38%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • Forecast marketsPolymarket
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

  2. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Texas

    Forecast
    7.5 pts over 24 hours, across 2 contracts, 2.3× its usual daily move
    Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? opens in a new tab from 39.0% to 31.5%
    Public attention
    12.0σ from usual, 4 sources
    Observed order
    3 hours apart

    Observed Oct 31, 17:22 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within early attention: 38%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • Forecast marketsPolymarket
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

  3. EARLY ATTENTION

    Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.

    Epstein files

    Forecast
    3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily move
    Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? opens in a new tab from 70.0% to 66.7%
    Public attention
    5.9σ from usual, 4 sources
    Observed order
    20 hours apart

    Observed Oct 29, 17:01 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within early attention: 16%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
1 further detection on this page — show it

  1. CONFIRMED SHIFT

    Forecast probability and public attention moved in the same window.

    Epstein files

    Forecast
    3.3 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.6× its usual daily move
    Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? opens in a new tab from 70.0% to 66.7%
    Public attention
    5.9σ from usual, 4 sources

    Observed Oct 28, 21:01 UTC Medium confidence

    How this was detected

    Strength within confirmed shift: 16%

    • Public discussionHacker News
    • Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
    • Public discussionLemmy
    • Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    • Public discussionMastodon
    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

Biggest movers

  1. US Social Security64
    about usual
    +13.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
    • Economy
  2. Opioid crisis60
    about usual
    +10.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Health
    • Politics
  3. Republican Party (US)54
    about usual
    +5.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
5 further topics moved less — show them
  1. US state politics54
    about usual
    +5.0 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 4 sources
    • Politics
  2. Texas55
    about usual
    +4.6 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  3. Florida49
    about usual
    +4.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  4. US foreign policy54
    about usual
    +4.0 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  5. US elections administration65
    about usual
    +2.0 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. US military33
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
  2. US elections administration31
    2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
  3. US federal courts24
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
7 further topics on this list — show them
  1. US Social Security22
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Reported
  2. Donald Trump20
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • Reported
  3. Republican Party (US)20
    2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
  4. Democratic Party (US)19
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Reported
  5. US Congress19
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity
  6. US presidency16
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Looked up
  7. Texas15
    One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Read here
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
79%
Coverage
73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 22 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 6 more seen and not scored; 541 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 30 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings