Future Index

Politics in Africa

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under politics in africa. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention21very quiet±0.5 ptsunchanged over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.76
5 sourcesPublic discussion3Search & activity2
21 items
Mood−25more negative than usual+25.3 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

Right now 18% positive · 51% neutral · 32% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

Medium confidence0.68
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
20 items
Turbulence57active+1.5 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0012:0018:0000:0006:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.83
6 sourcesForecast markets1Public discussion3Search & activity2
70 items
Out of date
DisagreementNot yet

Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.

Forecast conditions

Forecast MovementNot yet

This figure has not moved at all across the whole window it is compared against, so there is no spread to place today's reading on.

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. AttentionPublic discussionHacker News

    Egypt

    Attention rose sharply

    3.5× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    +9 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

  2. AttentionSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews

    Uganda

    Attention rose

    2.8× its usual variation — larger than usual

    25views

    +17.5 viewsup over the last 24 hours

    Future Index

  3. AttentionPublic discussionMastodon

    Senegal

    Attention rose

    2.5× its usual variation — larger than usual

    +3 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

96 changes were compared.

All changes today

Signals moving together

No relationships between signals were detected this week. Checked 21 topics: 0 had a forecast contract moving well outside its usual range and 1 had unusually high public attention, and none of them showed a second layer doing something measurable at the same time.

Biggest movers

  1. about usual
    +18.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  2. about usual
    +10.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  3. about usual
    +7.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
    • Conflict
2 further topics moved less — show them
  1. about usual
    +4.2 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics
  2. about usual
    +2.1 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Politics

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
  2. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Looked up
    • Reported
  3. 2 kinds of source are unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Read here
    • Reported

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
45%
Coverage
55% — 6 of 11 sources reporting
Freshness
Out of date
Representativeness
Limited
  • 2 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 5 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 21 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings