Future Index

Topics

US Congress

Attention around US Congress is elevated, and has not moved over the last 24 hours.

The House, the Senate, and the legislation and shutdowns that pass through them.

PoliticsUS

Signals

What moved

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 92 measurements were compared.

92 changes were compared. Not shown: 33 with nothing to compare against, 59 within their usual range.

Across signals

  1. QUIET MOVE

    Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.

    US Congress

    Forecast
    5.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract
    Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? from 79.5% to 74.5%
    Public attention
    -0.1σ from usual, 2 sources

    Strength within quiet move: 25%

    • Public discussionhackernews
    • Search & activityinternal_analytics
    • Forecast marketspolymarket

    Medium confidence

    • One forecast contract moved.
    • Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.

What was reported

Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.

  1. US Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. The Supreme Court rejects Trump's mail voting restrictions for this year's midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  3. Mitch McConnell returns to Senate after fall that led to an extended medical absence

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

5 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Remembering 9/11.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Trump jokes Republicans can ‘cheat like hell’ in the midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Jimmy Kimmel moves Senate interview to YouTube in latest collision with FCC

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. The Trump-to-Mamdani voter is real.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Trump promises $5,000 payouts if GOP wins midterms: Can the US afford it?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Forecast contracts

The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.

Showing 3 of 85; 82 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.

Show all 85 contracts

Sources

1 contributing source — view breakdown

Attention

  • Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity65.1

How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say