US state politics
Attention around US state politics is about usual, and has risen over the last 24 hours.
Governors, legislatures, ballot measures and recalls.
PoliticsUS
Signals
- +2.9 ptsup over 24 hoursAttention52about usual
00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
09-0909-1009-1109-1209-1309-1409-15
08-2008-2709-0309-10
Low confidence0.30Up to date2 sourcesSearch & activity1Public discussion1
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 72 measurements were compared.
72 changes were compared. Not shown: 18 with nothing to compare against, 54 within their usual range.
Across signals
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 5.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? from 51.0% to 45.5%
- Public attention
- 0.8σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 21%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Nothing was reported on US state politics in the last 7 days.
Forecast contracts
The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.
Showing 3 of 70; 67 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.
- 46%about even−4.5 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 89%likely+4.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 11%unlikely−4.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Sources
1 contributing source — view breakdown
Attention
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%70.5
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say