Forecast movementForecast marketsKalshi
Forecast probability rose
2.8× its usual variation — larger than usual
76%somewhat likely
+6.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Kalshi
Economy in North America
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under economy in north america. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
An unusually active day
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulenceturbulent
- Forecast Movementmoving
AttentionNot yet
This figure has not moved at all across the whole window it is compared against, so there is no spread to place today's reading on.
Mood−5about as usual+11.7 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculated30% positive · 59% neutral · 11% negative
03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
Turbulence64turbulent+29.4 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
DisagreementNot yet
Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement68moving+23.9 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00
09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17
08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17
18 questions · 2 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
The last 24 hours, without the explanations
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
211 changes were compared. Not shown: 103 with nothing to compare against, 107 within their usual range.
Signals moving together
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 12.0 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractUS recession by end of 2026? from 23.5% to 11.5%
- Public attention
- -0.2σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 60%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
NARRATIVE GAP
News coverage rose while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Public attention
- -0.1σ from usual, 2 sources
- Coverage
- 7 separate reports, 5.3σ from usual
Strength within narrative gap: 66%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- The coverage baseline covers a short history.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
- One of the signals is older than its usual update interval.
Biggest movers
- elevated+7.3 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+3.9 ptsup over 24 hours
- about usual+2.8 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
No topic is unusually busy across enough kinds of source to be listed. This panel is empty when the tracked topics are at their usual levels — it is not a reading of the world at large.
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 45%
- Coverage
- 50% — 5 of 10 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Limited
- 2 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 72 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 4 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings