Forecast movementForecast marketsPolymarket
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Forecast probability rose
2.1× its usual variation — larger than usual
8%unlikely
+0.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Polymarket
US presidency
Attention around US presidency is below usual, and has fallen over the last 24 hours.
The office, its occupant, and the national contest for it.
PoliticsUS
Signals
- −16.2 ptsdown over 24 hoursAttention43below usual
09:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:00
09-1009-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-16
08-2008-2709-0309-10
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 59about usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 42below usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 29below usualPublic discussionHacker News
Medium confidence0.56Up to date3 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion1
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
153 changes were compared. Not shown: 122 with nothing to compare against, 30 within their usual range.
Across signals
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 5.6 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? from 12.7% to 18.3%
- Public attention
- 0.8σ from usual, 2 sources
Strength within quiet move: 25%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Nothing was reported on US presidency in the last 7 days.
Forecast contracts
The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.
Showing 3 of 151; 148 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.
- 36%somewhat unlikely+2.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
- 16%unlikely−2.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
- 22%somewhat unlikely−1.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Sources
3 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion45%28.6
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%41.7
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity45%58.9
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say