Future Index

Topics

US presidency

Attention around US presidency is about usual, and has not moved over the last 24 hours.

The office, its occupant, and the national contest for it.

PoliticsUS

Signals

What moved

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy

    Discussion turned more negative sharply

    4.3× its usual variation — much larger than usual

    -29

    −33.2 ptsdown over the last 24 hours

26 changes were compared.

Across signals

No relationships between signals were detected this week. Checked 1 topic: 1 had a forecast contract moving well outside its usual range and 1 had unusually high public attention, and none of them showed a second layer doing something measurable at the same time.

What was reported

Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.

  1. Three media outlets seek full White House access in amended lawsuit opens in a new tab

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    CNBC

  2. Trump faces private citizens lawsuit over limiting White House media access opens in a new tab

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Al Jazeera English

  3. The arc of Trump: How the president lost the coalition that put him in the White House opens in a new tab

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    CNBC

What people are discussing

Posts and shared links on the discussion platforms this site reads that are about this topic, over the last two days, the most discussed first. Titles are the platform's own. Counts are the platform's where it publishes them, and otherwise the comments or shares this site read; none of it is a figure this site calculates.

  1. The White House Panther opens in a new tab

    4 commentsLemmydiscussion opens in a new tab

  2. House Democrats demand White House preserve Trump’s AI chatbot conversations opens in a new tab

    2 commentsLemmydiscussion opens in a new tab

  3. As Trump fans the flames of a world on fire, can diplomacy take back control? opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

7 more posts — show them
  1. Robot imports ‘threaten to impair the national security’, Trump says opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

  2. Trump Rallies in Florida 4 Days Before the Midterms opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

  3. Trump reverses course, reinstates cancelled campaign rallies opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

  4. BREAKING: Elon Musk Is Four Days From the Bill Coming Due, And He Is FREAKING Out opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

  5. Did White House Halloween post include image of sombrero carved into pumpkin? opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

  6. Trump Has Tried to Exert More Control Over Elections. Here Are the Key Findings From Our Reporting. opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

  7. Locutus of Borg opens in a new tab

    shared in 1 postMastodon

Forecast contracts

One row per source's own question. These are listed side by side for comparison and are not combined into a single figure — each source is answering its own question, in its own words.

  1. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    65%somewhat likely+0.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
  2. Forecast marketsKalshi
    20%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  3. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    49%about even±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
17 further contracts on this topic — show them
  1. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  2. Forecast marketsKalshi
    14%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  3. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    59%about even±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  4. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  5. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    45%about even−2.7 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
  6. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  7. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    18%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  8. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    20%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  9. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  10. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  11. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    1%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  12. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  13. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    0%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  14. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    35%somewhat unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  15. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    14%unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  16. Forecast marketsPolymarket
    1%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
  17. Forecast marketsManifold Markets
    40%somewhat unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours

Readers' discussion on this site

Comments from readers of this site, newest first. They are opinions, not a measurement: no figure on this page is computed from them.

Thank you — a moderator will look at it.

A comment is 1 to 2,000 characters.

Log in to do that.

That topic does not accept comments.

That comment no longer exists.

Too many attempts in a short time. Wait a little and try again.

Writing is paused for a moment. Try again in a few minutes.

The site could not complete that just now. Try again in a few minutes.

Plain text, up to 2,000 characters. Links are not made clickable. Posting needs an account; you will be asked to log in. Comment rules

No comments yet.

Sources

3 contributing sources — view breakdown

Attention

  • Hacker NewsPublic discussion50.0
  • Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity39.7
  • Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity82.7

How the attention figure is calculated · method version 3.0.0 · What these figures do not say