Future Index

Conflict in Middle East

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under conflict in middle east. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

An unusually active day

AttentionNot yet

This figure has not moved at all across the whole window it is compared against, so there is no spread to place today's reading on.

Mood−67much more negative than usual−21.7 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

Right now 14% positive · 55% neutral · 31% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.77
3 sourcesPublic discussion3
190 items
Turbulence63turbulent−5.3 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.92
8 sourcesForecast markets3Public discussion3Search & activity2
53 items
Disagreement45some disagreement−10.1 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

Low confidence0.34
1 sourcePublic discussion1
132 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement42some movement−15.6 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00

10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01

10-0810-1510-2210-29

High confidence0.89
3 sourcesForecast markets3
26 items

26 questions · 3 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

  1. AttentionPublic discussionLemmy

    Iran

    Attention rose sharply

    5.5× its usual variation — far larger than usual

    82mentions

    +51 mentionsup over the last 24 hours

74 changes were compared.

All changes today

Signals moving together

No relationships between signals were detected this week. Checked 5 topics: 3 had a forecast contract moving well outside its usual range and 0 had unusually high public attention, and none of them showed a second layer doing something measurable at the same time.

Biggest movers

  1. below usual
    +4.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Conflict
  2. about usual
    +3.3 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 5 sources
    • Conflict

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Discussion
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
58%
Coverage
73% — 8 of 11 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 18 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 1 more seen and not scored; 118 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 5 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings