Future Index

Conflict in Middle East

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under conflict in middle east. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention44below usual3.4 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.64
2 sourcesSearch & activity2
5 items
Mood−21more negative than usual9.5 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

19% positive · 53% neutral · 28% negative

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.76
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
401 items
Turbulence55active+11.5 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.82
4 sourcesForecast markets2Search & activity2
24 items
Disagreement52clear disagreement+2.3 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Disagreement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Disagreement is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.57
2 sourcesPublic discussion2
391 items

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement68moving+22.3 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

High confidence0.82
2 sourcesForecast markets2
6 items

6 questions · 2 sources

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

The last 24 hours, without the explanations

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 54 measurements were compared.

54 changes were compared. Not shown: 21 with nothing to compare against, 33 within their usual range.

All changes today

Signals moving together

No relationships between signals were detected in this window. A detection needs two layers to have moved measurably over the same topic.

Biggest movers

  1. about usual
    +6.7 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Conflict
  2. about usual
    +4.4 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Medium confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Conflict

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

  1. One kind of source is unusually busy with this
    • Looked up
    • Reported
    • discounted — few accounts carried the activity

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
72%
Coverage
60% — 6 of 10 sources reporting
Freshness
Up to date
Representativeness
Moderate
  • 22 online communities
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored; 2 more seen and not scored; 160 items carried no identification
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 5 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings