AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose
3.5× its usual variation — larger than usual
+19 mentionsup over a full day
Conflict in Asia-Pacific
The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under conflict in asia-pacific. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.
World conditions
A fairly ordinary day
- Attentionabout usual
- Moodabout as usual
- Turbulencecalm
- Forecast Movementsome movement
Attention55about usual−6.7 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Attention is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Mood−8about as usual+2.1 ptsup over 24 hours
Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Mood is calculatedRight now 11% positive · 78% neutral · 10% negative — the figure is measured against its usual mix
06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Turbulence33calm−15.9 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Turbulence is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
DisagreementNot yet
Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.
Forecast conditions
Forecast Movement47some movement−33.2 ptsdown over 24 hours
Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.
How Forecast Movement is calculated06:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:00
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
10 questions · 2 sources
Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.
Today in brief — the last 24 hours on one page
What changed today
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Discussion sentimentPublic discussionLemmy
Discussion turned more negative
3.3× its usual variation — larger than usual
-93
−106.8 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
45 changes were compared.
Signals moving together
EARLY ATTENTION
Public discussion rose before the forecast contracts moved.
- Forecast
- 3.6 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contract, 2.2× its usual daily moveWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? opens in a new tab from 5.1% to 1.5%
- Public attention
- 5.4σ from usual, 4 sources
- Observed order
- 4 hours apart
How this was detected
Strength within early attention: 18%
- Public discussionHacker News
- Search & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- Public discussionLemmy
- Public discussionMastodon
- Forecast marketsPolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
Biggest movers
- Myanmar49about usual+2.9 ptsup over 24 hours
Trending topics
No topic is unusually busy across enough kinds of source to be listed. This panel is empty when the tracked topics are at their usual levels — it is not a reading of the world at large.
Where sources disagree
No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.
Data conditions
How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.
- Measurement quality
- 62%
- Coverage
- 64% — 7 of 11 sources reporting
- Freshness
- Up to date
- Representativeness
- Limited
- 3 online communities
- 3 kinds of evidence
- one language scored; 23 items carried no identification
- 1 of 6 regions, over 6 located subjects
How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings