Future Index

Conflict in Africa

The same four readings, over the topics this product tracks under conflict in africa. Every panel below is ranked within that selection rather than filtered out of a world-wide ranking.

World conditions

A fairly ordinary day

Attention49about usual+1.3 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Attention figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Attention is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.56
2 sourcesSearch & activity2
2 items
Mood−16more negative than usual±0.1 ptsunchanged over 24 hours

Where the Mood figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Mood is calculated

0% positive · 100% neutral · 0% negative

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.46
1 sourcePublic discussion1
1 item
Out of date
Turbulence12very calm−18.9 ptsdown over 24 hours

Where the Turbulence figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Turbulence is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.64
3 sourcesForecast markets1Search & activity2
4 items
DisagreementNot yet

Fewer than two independent communities have said anything about this part of the world, and one community cannot disagree with itself.

Forecast conditions

Forecast Movement35some movement+4.4 ptsup over 24 hours

Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from, what it reads and what it does not claim. Method version 5.0.0.

How Forecast Movement is calculated

03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00

09-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-1609-17

08-2008-2709-0309-1009-17

Medium confidence0.55
1 sourceForecast markets1
1 item

1 question · 1 source

Forecast Movement measures how much expectations moved, not whether they moved towards any particular outcome. Why there is no single score, why what we can see is reported separately.

The last 24 hours, without the explanations

What changed today

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 6 measurements were compared.

6 changes were compared. Not shown: 4 with nothing to compare against, 2 within their usual range.

All changes today

Signals moving together

No relationships between signals were detected in this window. A detection needs two layers to have moved measurably over the same topic.

Biggest movers

  1. Sudan78
    elevated
    +2.8 ptsup over 24 hours
    • Low confidence
    • 3 sources
    • Conflict

All measurements and ranges

Trending topics

No topic is unusually busy across enough kinds of source to be listed. This panel is empty when the tracked topics are at their usual levels — it is not a reading of the world at large.

Where sources disagree

No topic currently shows a material difference between how much is being published about it and how much it is being discussed. A comparison needs both sides: a topic only one of them has anything to say about is not a disagreement.

Data conditions

How well this site can currently see. None of this is a reading of the world, and none of it changes the figures above.

Measurement quality
44%
Coverage
40% — 4 of 10 sources reporting
Freshness
Out of date
Representativeness
Limited
  • one online community, which is not a public
  • 3 kinds of evidence
  • one language scored
  • 1 of 6 regions, over 2 located subjects

How these are worked out, and why they are kept separate from the readings