Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Probability

93.5%

likely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 93.5% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 93.5% at
  • 7 days−1.5 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 95.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-08 22:02 to 09-15 21:02 UTC. Starts at 95.0%, ends at 93.5%, ranging between 89.0% and 97.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1209-1409-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0080168 increments
  • 30 days0.0064309 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.12
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-15T21:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-15T21:46:06.321Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.94

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.94 at 2026-09-15T20:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.94 at 2026-09-14T21:02:00.000Z
  • 7d−1.5 points down, measured from 0.95 at 2026-09-08T21:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.008 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.006 probability units per √hour, from 309 changes

Confidence 0.12 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.76, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. AI 'kill switch' may need to be mandatory, Anthropic co-founder says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Nigeria: What's the real motivation behind Dangote's IPO 'for the people?'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. ChatGPT has a feature to help those in crisis.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Anthropic boss Dario Amodei calls for AI slowdown

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Anthropic boss Dario Amodei calls for AI development to slow down

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. US lawyer cites fake witnesses in murder case, blames ChatGPT

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Anthropic warns of bids to use AI to build biological weapons

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Anthropic claims Claude AI used for missile projects, global espionage

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Anthropic blocks 'malicious use' of AI that could develop biological weapons

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Hong Kong court rules Dow Jones tried to stop journalist taking union role

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Anthropic discloses 4th AI hacking incident as researcher quits over safety

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. A new Anthropic model seeks to test how AI could impact the U.S.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  10. AI researcher quits Anthropic saying AI race ‘could kill us all’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. IPO report sets out findings from local authorities on counterfeit goods and wider IP crime threat.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  12. Diesel price hits all-time high in US amid Iran war woes

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. OpenAI unveils GPT‑6 Astra amid rising scrutiny and safety concerns

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. OpenAI’s Sam Altman tells G20 AI will be as essential as electricity

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. OpenAI faces new lawsuits over Tumbler Ridge mass shooting tragedy

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. New lawsuits claim OpenAI execs put image ahead of safety in Canadian mass shooting

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  17. Can cut-price Shein shine in its long-awaited stock market debut?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXOAIANTH-40-ANTH

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • anthropic
  • openai
  • stock-markets

Last observed . Page built .