Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?

Probability

7.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 7.5% at
  • 24 hours−0.5 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 8.0% at
  • 7 daysNo baseline this far back
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 34 readings from 09-09 12:22 to 09-10 21:22 UTC. Starts at 8.0%, ends at 7.5%, ranging between 7.5% and 8.0%. 33 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings0 increments
  • 24 hours0.001023 increments
  • 7 days0.001347 increments
  • 30 days0.001347 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Medium confidence0.52
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: high. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-10T21:22:12.516Z, calculated at 2026-09-10T22:43:48.959Z.
Participation behind it
$414 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Very thin participation — a single contributor could move this number.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.08

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.08 at 2026-09-10T21:22:12.516Z
  • 24h−0.5 points down, measured from 0.08 at 2026-09-09T22:22:06.079Z
  • 7dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 0 changes in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.001 probability units per √hour, from 23 changes
  • 7d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 47 changes
  • 30d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 47 changes

Confidence 0.52 — Medium

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.56, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.55, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.70, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.20, carrying 10% of the score
  • liquidity is below $5,000

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Carney's new love-in with EU has everything to do with Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Senators question Trump's picks for top health positions, including surgeon general

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  3. At least five killed in Russian drone strike near Ukraine front line

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Why Trump is all-in on AI despite the warnings

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Trump administration plans $2.8bn sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. AI leaders call for regulations, Trump dismisses 'hoaxes'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  4. Kennedy Center closes amid financial crisis and Trump name dispute

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Blanche says admin will comply with mail ballot ruling, defends Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Trump's name must stay off Kennedy Center building, judge rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Judge blocks plan to return Trump's name to the Kennedy Center

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  8. Will Russia and Ukraine halt attacks on energy infrastructure?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Russia: Trump's Ukraine ceasefire proposal is 'good idea'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  10. Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause attacks if Russia spares infrastructure

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Supreme Court blocks Trump's plan to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  12. SCOTUS rejects Trump's mail voting limits.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  13. Air pollution spiked after the Trump administration stopped embassy monitoring

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  14. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. Ex-CIA chief issued subpoena in Trump 'grand conspiracy' investigation, lawyer says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  16. Ukraine's postal workers deliver lifeline under Russian fire

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  17. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x89522d57b6a2cca2f737872db3ca4adcbaf0252fda9a265d90d549e7aee7bd43

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • donald-trump
  • ukraine-politics

Last observed . Page built .