Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

Probability

7.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 7.5% at
  • 24 hours−1.2 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 8.6% at
  • 7 daysNo baseline this far back
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 48 readings from 09-08 22:22 to 09-10 21:22 UTC. Starts at 7.6%, ends at 7.5%, ranging between 6.4% and 9.3%. 47 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1109-1309-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings0 increments
  • 24 hours0.008023 increments
  • 7 days0.006647 increments
  • 30 days0.006647 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Medium confidence0.48
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-10T21:22:12.516Z, calculated at 2026-09-10T22:43:48.959Z.
Participation behind it
$639 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.07

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.07 at 2026-09-10T21:22:12.516Z
  • 24h−1.2 points down, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-09T22:22:06.079Z
  • 7dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 0 changes in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.008 probability units per √hour, from 23 changes
  • 7d0.007 probability units per √hour, from 47 changes
  • 30d0.007 probability units per √hour, from 47 changes

Confidence 0.48 — Medium

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.60, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.55, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.39, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.20, carrying 10% of the score
  • liquidity is below $5,000

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Denmark says Russian warship fired flares at military helicopter

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Russian warship fires flares at Danish helicopter

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Ex-CIA chief issued subpoena in Trump 'grand conspiracy' investigation, lawyer says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Ukraine's postal workers deliver lifeline under Russian fire

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. US Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Trump administration suffers double legal setback over immigration rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. US Supreme Court denies Trump bid to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  7. The Supreme Court rejects Trump's mail voting restrictions for this year's midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  8. Kremlin-linked Russian oligarch helped fund Trump Jr.'s wedding celebration

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  9. Landowners in Texas ask court to stop Trump border wall

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Finland shelters under French nuclear umbrella amid Russian, US uncertainty

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. NATO pledges increased Ukraine support as Russia strikes near border

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Trump seeks halt to energy attacks by both Russia, Ukraine

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  13. Trump dismisses concerns over AI dangers

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. Ukraine, Russia set for new round of US-mediated talks

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  15. Why is Trump warning Zelenskyy not to hit Russian diesel refineries?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. ‘Attacks will be fully autonomous’: Russia, Ukraine race towards AI warfare

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. EU leaders urge unity after Russian strike on train

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x40c2dd3dc9e6fb511e58e2a67141b66a97aa569e6b59c9b1f14f65e734c173d1

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • donald-trump
  • russia-politics

Last observed . Page built .