Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Probability

8.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 8.5% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 8.5% at
  • 7 days−4.0 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 12.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-08 11:22 to 09-15 10:21 UTC. Starts at 12.5%, ends at 8.5%, ranging between 8.5% and 12.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1109-1309-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0015168 increments
  • 30 days0.0027298 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.83
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-15T10:21:58.372Z, calculated at 2026-09-15T10:25:59.526Z.
Participation behind it
$76,121 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.09

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-15T09:22:01.032Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-14T10:20:44.882Z
  • 7d−4.0 points down, measured from 0.13 at 2026-09-08T10:22:03.548Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.002 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.003 probability units per √hour, from 298 changes

Confidence 0.83 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.98, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Denmark says Russian warship fired flares at military helicopter

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Russian warship fires flares at Danish helicopter

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. Ukraine's postal workers deliver lifeline under Russian fire

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Kremlin-linked Russian oligarch helped fund Trump Jr.'s wedding celebration

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Finland shelters under French nuclear umbrella amid Russian, US uncertainty

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. NATO pledges increased Ukraine support as Russia strikes near border

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Trump seeks halt to energy attacks by both Russia, Ukraine

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  5. Ukraine, Russia set for new round of US-mediated talks

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. Why is Trump warning Zelenskyy not to hit Russian diesel refineries?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Member of UK armed forces dies in road traffic incident in Ukraine

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. ‘Attacks will be fully autonomous’: Russia, Ukraine race towards AI warfare

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Ukraine: AfD questions German aid, Berlin remains committed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  10. EU leaders urge unity after Russian strike on train

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  11. Berlin businesswoman charged over alleged spying for Russia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  12. Russian drone hits train near Ukraine-Poland border soon after dignitaries passed through

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  13. Cuban dance teacher ordered EU sabotage attacks from Russia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. Russia hits Ukrainian train shortly after Boris Johnson leaves station

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Watch: Why a Russian strike on train near Ukraine-Poland border could mark an escalation

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  16. Poland, Ukraine accuse Russia of ‘escalation’ after strikes near border

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Trump tells Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian diesel supplies

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • russia-politics
  • russia-ukraine-war
  • ukraine-politics

Last observed . Page built .