Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Probability

17.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 17.5% at
  • 24 hours−2.0 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 19.5% at
  • 7 days−6.0 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 23.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 18:22 to 09-16 17:21 UTC. Starts at 23.5%, ends at 17.5%, ranging between 17.5% and 28.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.004124 increments
  • 7 days0.0057168 increments
  • 30 days0.0121328 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.74
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T16:21:09.359Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T17:16:11.889Z.
Participation behind it
$28,830 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.18

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.18 at 2026-09-16T15:21:09.438Z
  • 24h−2.0 points down, measured from 0.20 at 2026-09-15T16:22:31.298Z
  • 7d−6.0 points down, measured from 0.24 at 2026-09-09T16:22:06.869Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.004 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.006 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.012 probability units per √hour, from 328 changes

Confidence 0.74 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.95, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Poll shows Americans are increasingly alarmed by AI’s ecological footprint

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Microsoft says AI rival Anthropic could have 'disastrous impact' on humanity

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. US political rivals Sanders and Bannon unite on AI warning

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. What lies behind Scotland's AI data centre boom

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Filed: 2026-09-16 AccNo: 0001062993-26-004974 Size: 768 KB Item 8.01: Other Events Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  3. As campaign season gears up, AI-generated ads are everywhere

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  4. Why Trump is all-in on AI despite the warnings

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  5. Anthropic CEO didn’t foresee the speed of global AI growth

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. OpenAI boss says world 'right to be afraid' but 'should trust' AI firms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Why doomsday warnings are not the only threat to the AI juggernaut

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. AI app ads promoting 'objectification of women' banned by watchdog

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  9. AI leaders call for regulations, Trump dismisses 'hoaxes'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  10. Filed: 2026-09-15 AccNo: 0001437749-26-030466 Size: 1 MB Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  11. US speaker rejects AI pause, warns of losing edge to China

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Filed: 2026-09-15 AccNo: 0001101215-26-000084 Size: 304 KB Item 7.01: Regulation FD Disclosure Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  13. Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon to share a stage to promote curbs on AI

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  14. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. Why top AI researchers are warning about human extinction

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  16. Telecommunications industry leaders in the UK and India will harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to tackle online fraud, scams and harms.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  17. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x454005ba2b2a2f3bfeb354e18d8c0cb82136009c8f39589645f9cf2af25f0d25

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • ai-capability
  • openai

Last observed . Page built .