Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

0.5%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 0.5% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 0.5% at
  • 7 days±0.1 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 0.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 15:22 to 09-16 14:21 UTC. Starts at 0.5%, ends at 0.5%, ranging between 0.5% and 0.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0000326 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.92
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T14:21:08.432Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T14:26:06.332Z.
Participation behind it
$82,222 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.00

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-16T13:21:11.708Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-15T14:22:01.967Z
  • 7d±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-09T14:22:06.037Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 326 changes

Confidence 0.92 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.97, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. China willing to ‘safeguard Iran’s legitimate rights’, official says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. What’s the Pinglu Canal, China’s new gateway to Southeast Asia?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. China’s defence chief warns against coercion, avoids US, Japan mention

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Iran war live: Iran’s top diplomat heads to China as war drags on

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. US speaker rejects AI pause, warns of losing edge to China

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Can China play peacemaker as Iran’s foreign minister heads to Beijing?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. China does not need to replace the US in the Gulf

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. China tightens travel rules over tech security

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. China rejects AI ‘threat narratives’, urges global cooperation

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. ‘Silent Cold War’: Why calls to slow AI have sparked new US–China frontier

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Chinese Hyrox athlete sparks debate for continuing race after soiling herself

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  9. Beijing hits back at Anthropic CEO's call to curb China's AI development

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  10. Trump dismisses report China supplied intel to Iran

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  11. Trump downplays warnings of AI risks, citing rivalry with China

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  12. China’s Xi heads to India for BRICS summit overshadowed by wars

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. China angered by Taiwan VP's visit to EU democracy forum

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. At least 25 dead after cargo ship catches fire in China

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. China: Cargo ship fire kills at least 20

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  16. 'Significant casualties' after fire on cargo ship in eastern China

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  17. China: English to be removed as a graded core subject?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x7f347ed733252dc7afbd91e28104e23651b81ef6d2ef6805c7915c22e89a69b5

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • china-politics

Last observed . Page built .