Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

0.2%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 0.2% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 0.2% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 0.2% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 04:22 to 09-17 03:21 UTC. Starts at 0.2%, ends at 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 0.2%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-1009-1109-1309-1509-17
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0000170 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.83
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-17T02:21:08.902Z, calculated at 2026-09-17T03:16:11.895Z.
Participation behind it
$96,455 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.00

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-17T01:21:11.585Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-16T02:21:06.847Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-10T02:22:09.213Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 170 changes

Confidence 0.83 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Ukraine: Russian strikes injure several in Kyiv, Odesa

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Congress passes sweeping US sanctions bill targeting Russia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. US Congress passes Russia sanctions bill

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. House passes Russia sanctions, sending bill named for Lindsey Graham to Trump's desk

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. DOJ charges Russian agents with plotting attacks, including in US

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  3. Russia seizes Ukrainian POWs, then it demands favors from their relatives

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  4. US accuses Russia of trying to kill Ukrainian allies overseas

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  5. Poland reiterates Ukraine support after Russia drone attacks

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. At least five killed in Russian drone strike near Ukraine front line

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. India news: US bill sanctioning Russia could hit India with tariffs of up to 100%

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  8. US charges five people over alleged Russian plots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. NATO downs drone over Lithuania, ‘probably’ launched by Russia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Eto’o could face Cameroon probe over alleged Russia payment

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Will Russia and Ukraine halt attacks on energy infrastructure?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Russia: Trump's Ukraine ceasefire proposal is 'good idea'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  13. Russia warns Denmark after near miss in Baltic Sea

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Ovechkin still backing Putin party in parliamentary vote

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  15. Zelenskyy says Ukraine will pause attacks if Russia spares infrastructure

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Denmark says Russian warship fired flares at military helicopter

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  17. Russian warship fires flares at Danish helicopter

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x1e7a7b53f33712909925d133f51a3454a97f8d39bb2651761c4ee44d580ae2df

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • russia-politics

Last observed . Page built .