Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Probability

7.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 7.5% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 7.5% at
  • 7 days+1.0 ppup over 7 daysfrom 6.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 06:22 to 09-16 05:21 UTC. Starts at 6.5%, ends at 7.5%, ranging between 6.5% and 7.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1009-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0008168 increments
  • 30 days0.0013317 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.83
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T05:21:05.236Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T05:26:06.325Z.
Participation behind it
$578,432 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.08

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.08 at 2026-09-16T04:21:05.687Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.08 at 2026-09-15T05:21:58.865Z
  • 7d+1.0 points up, measured from 0.07 at 2026-09-09T05:22:04.765Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 317 changes

Confidence 0.83 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.97, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Iran war live: Iran’s top diplomat heads to China as war drags on

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Panic on board Iranian plane as violent shaking rips cabin apart

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Western intelligence warns of Iranian cyber threats targeting dissidents

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Republican Rep.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Iran war has led to US munitions shortfalls, Pentagon inspector confirms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. Dozens of aircraft, hundreds of buildings: US loss to Iran attacks revealed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Iran and America: A tale of two lands and the pistachio between them

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  5. Iran war live: CENTCOM disputes IRGC claim supertanker struck by Hormuz nav

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Why talks in Oman between Iran and Gulf Arab states were postponed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. US blocks Iran nuclear chief from attending key Vienna conference

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Fiscal pressure from Iran War clouds Gulf States’ US spending plans

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Temporary Hormuz solution deferred as Iran-Arab summit falls through

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Strait of Hormuz talks postponed due to Yemen events, says Iran

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Can Iran replace sea trade with land routes?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  12. Trump dismisses report China supplied intel to Iran

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  13. The Iran war reveals the limits of BRICS

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Iran war reshapes Brics ties but also exposes divisions

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. Iran’s Pezeshkian: ‘We are not at war with Saudi Arabia’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Iran war live: Saudi Arabia and Houthis trade strikes over Bab al-Mandeb

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Bahrain says it will not participate in Iran’s proposed Hormuz meeting

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • iran

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