Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Probability

0.8%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.1 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 0.8% at
  • 24 hours±0.1 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 0.8% at
  • 7 days±0.2 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 0.7% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 20:22 to 09-16 19:21 UTC. Starts at 0.7%, ends at 0.9%, ranging between 0.7% and 0.9%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000224 increments
  • 7 days0.0002168 increments
  • 30 days0.0003330 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.80
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T18:21:09.220Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T19:16:11.890Z.
Participation behind it
$311,203 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.01

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-16T17:21:09.695Z
  • 24h±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-15T18:22:31.919Z
  • 7d±0.2 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-09T18:22:06.673Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 330 changes

Confidence 0.80 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.98, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.35, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. What's gone wrong for Chelsea talent Kendry Paez?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Maresca defends VAR while lamenting row dominating win at Manchester United

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. What next for Gabriel and Man Utd?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. FIFA to present review of Infantino’s shelved investment plan to Council

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Real Madrid stars appear to hide Ceuta solidarity message

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Why are Man Utd better without the ball?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  4. 'Superstar' Dowman shows his class - but Arsenal know caution is needed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  5. Champions League final venues revealed: Munich 2028, Barcelona 2029

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Youth star JJ Gabriel, 15, on brink of leaving Man Utd

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Spurs' Richarlison posts crying emoji after being left out of Liverpool tie

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. Leeds United defeat Newcastle 4-1 to go third in Premier League

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Who has made Troy's Premier League team of the week?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  10. Manchester derby VAR officials stood down from weekend Premier League games

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. What’s the VAR mistake controversy in Haaland’s Man City goal vs United?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Women's Basketball World Cup: Can Germany harness a boom?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  13. Is the Premier League already a two-team title race?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  14. Familiar questions for Man Utd, now Carrick must find answers

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. Lamine Yamal says he ‘deserves’ Ballon d’Or but Mbappe his main rival

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Former West Ham keeper Miklosko dies aged 64

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  17. USA defeat France to win 12th FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x26f410f7518fa199678ef57f02637fc88be9b3b593346b00946d7ea451f4521b

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • soccer-global

Last observed . Page built .