Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Probability

2.4%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 2.4% at
  • 24 hours±0.3 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 2.7% at
  • 7 days±0.1 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 2.3% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-08 11:22 to 09-15 10:21 UTC. Starts at 2.2%, ends at 2.4%, ranging between 2.2% and 3.3%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1109-1309-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000524 increments
  • 7 days0.0010168 increments
  • 30 days0.0008298 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.89
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-15T10:21:58.372Z, calculated at 2026-09-15T10:25:59.526Z.
Participation behind it
$190,612 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.02

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.02 at 2026-09-15T09:22:01.032Z
  • 24h±0.3 points unchanged, measured from 0.03 at 2026-09-14T10:20:44.882Z
  • 7d±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.02 at 2026-09-08T10:22:03.548Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.001 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 298 changes

Confidence 0.89 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.98, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.35, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Spurs' Richarlison posts crying emoji after being left out of Liverpool tie

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Leeds United defeat Newcastle 4-1 to go third in Premier League

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Who has made Troy's Premier League team of the week?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Manchester derby VAR officials stood down from weekend Premier League games

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. What’s the VAR mistake controversy in Haaland’s Man City goal vs United?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Women's Basketball World Cup: Can Germany harness a boom?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  4. Is the Premier League already a two-team title race?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  5. Familiar questions for Man Utd, now Carrick must find answers

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  6. Lamine Yamal says he ‘deserves’ Ballon d’Or but Mbappe his main rival

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Former West Ham keeper Miklosko dies aged 64

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. USA defeat France to win 12th FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Haaland scores controversial winner as Man City win derby despite Foden red

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  10. LIVE: Manchester United vs Manchester City – Premier League

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Mbappe double helps Real Madrid thump Rayo Vallecano 4–1 in La Liga

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. 'Today the game was unprotected' - Arteta fumes but Arsenal survive

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  13. USA edge Spain to book Women’s Basketball World Cup final against France

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Toothless Spurs blank again as new era turns into a false dawn

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. More dropped points at Anfield - is it too early for Liverpool to worry?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  16. New system, same problems - Alonso not happy with 'soft' Chelsea

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  17. Chelsea draw with Hull, Liverpool held by Fulham and Villa remain winless

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x7034c00a24f9edbf325fd5a0b9a63412e469fc8cd2aa9b060fb5ba8e10d7ebef

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • soccer-global

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