Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Probability

54.5%

about even

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.1 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 54.4% at
  • 24 hours+2.6 ppup over 24 hoursfrom 51.9% at
  • 7 days+8.8 ppup over 7 daysfrom 45.7% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 06:22 to 09-16 05:21 UTC. Starts at 45.7%, ends at 54.5%, ranging between 44.1% and 55.3%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1009-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.002924 increments
  • 7 days0.0070168 increments
  • 30 days0.0064317 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.91
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T05:21:05.236Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T05:26:06.325Z.
Participation behind it
$316,585 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.54

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.54 at 2026-09-16T04:21:05.687Z
  • 24h+2.6 points up, measured from 0.52 at 2026-09-15T05:21:58.865Z
  • 7d+8.8 points up, measured from 0.46 at 2026-09-09T05:22:04.765Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.003 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.007 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.006 probability units per √hour, from 317 changes

Confidence 0.91 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.97, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.91, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.50, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Flavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe weeks before Brazil election

    2 independent origins · medium confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Brazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Last dance?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

12 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Polls suggest tight presidential race as Brazil marks Independence Day

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Brazilian activist demands Tunisia release Sumud Flotilla organisers

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. HMS Bulwark is to be sold to the Brazilian Navy, ending more than two decades of service with the Royal Navy, as UK focus turns to the future of amphibious assault ships.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  4. Brazil sues chat platform Discord over failure to protect child users

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro to institute debt ceiling if elected president

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Brazil fines TikTok $30m for child data privacy violations

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Tottenham sign Brazilian winger Savinho from Manchester City

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Brazil launches AI supercomputer push while balancing US and Chinese tech

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Fears grow in Amazon village as Brazilian drug gangs push into Bolivia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Brazil bus crash kills at least 23 and injures five in Parana state

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Brazil’s president says Amazon oil is ‘passport to the future’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Lula and Bolsonaro’s son launch rival bids for Brazil presidency

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x1a01bf78f56a507fcb666d564d8c8b91b0750679163ed6e96746102c9b7d285d

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • brazil

Last observed . Page built .