Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

2.9%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 2.9% at
  • 24 hours±0.1 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 3.0% at
  • 7 days+1.2 ppup over 7 daysfrom 1.7% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 20:22 to 09-16 19:21 UTC. Starts at 1.7%, ends at 2.9%, ranging between 1.6% and 4.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.003124 increments
  • 7 days0.0028168 increments
  • 30 days0.0020331 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.88
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T19:21:10.748Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T19:46:11.890Z.
Participation behind it
$334,828 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.03

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.03 at 2026-09-16T18:21:09.220Z
  • 24h±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.03 at 2026-09-15T19:20:35.450Z
  • 7d+1.2 points up, measured from 0.02 at 2026-09-09T19:22:07.102Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.003 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.003 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.002 probability units per √hour, from 331 changes

Confidence 0.88 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.86, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Carney's new love-in with EU has everything to do with Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. Senators question Trump's picks for top health positions, including surgeon general

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  3. Why Trump is all-in on AI despite the warnings

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Trump administration plans $2.8bn sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. AI leaders call for regulations, Trump dismisses 'hoaxes'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. Kennedy Center closes amid financial crisis and Trump name dispute

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Blanche says admin will comply with mail ballot ruling, defends Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Trump's name must stay off Kennedy Center building, judge rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  6. Judge blocks plan to return Trump's name to the Kennedy Center

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  7. Supreme Court blocks Trump's plan to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. SCOTUS rejects Trump's mail voting limits.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  9. Air pollution spiked after the Trump administration stopped embassy monitoring

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  10. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  11. Ex-CIA chief issued subpoena in Trump 'grand conspiracy' investigation, lawyer says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  12. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. US Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Trump administration suffers double legal setback over immigration rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. US Supreme Court denies Trump bid to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  16. The Supreme Court rejects Trump's mail voting restrictions for this year's midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  17. Landowners in Texas ask court to stop Trump border wall

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x962e5b226a77266ab429029ee04665e8fcfeb10b91af593786ceab871d2e945f

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • donald-trump

Last observed . Page built .