Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?

Probability

16.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 16.5% at
  • 24 hours−1.0 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 17.5% at
  • 7 days−4.0 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 20.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 09:22 to 09-16 08:21 UTC. Starts at 20.5%, ends at 16.5%, ranging between 15.0% and 35.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.012524 increments
  • 7 days0.0237168 increments
  • 30 days0.0308320 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Medium confidence0.41
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T08:21:06.366Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T08:56:19.126Z.
Participation behind it
$618 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.17

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.17 at 2026-09-16T07:21:06.327Z
  • 24h−1.0 points down, measured from 0.18 at 2026-09-15T08:21:58.385Z
  • 7d−4.0 points down, measured from 0.21 at 2026-09-09T08:22:05.400Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.013 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.024 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.031 probability units per √hour, from 320 changes

Confidence 0.41 — Medium

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.59, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.80, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.10, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score
  • liquidity is below $5,000

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Saudi Arabia says Houthis target Mecca, warns of 'red line'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Trump administration plans $2.8bn sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Saudi Arabia cancels oil to Europe over East-West pipeline blast

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Attacks on Saudi oil expose Iraqi PM’s struggle to control armed factions

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. AI leaders call for regulations, Trump dismisses 'hoaxes'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. Kennedy Center closes amid financial crisis and Trump name dispute

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Blanche says admin will comply with mail ballot ruling, defends Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Trump's name must stay off Kennedy Center building, judge rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  6. Egypt’s Sisi meets MBS, backs Saudi call for secure Red Sea navigation

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Judge blocks plan to return Trump's name to the Kennedy Center

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  8. Saudi Arabia faces hard choices as Houthis gain in Yemen

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  9. Supreme Court blocks Trump's plan to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  10. SCOTUS rejects Trump's mail voting limits.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  11. Air pollution spiked after the Trump administration stopped embassy monitoring

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  12. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  13. Ex-CIA chief issued subpoena in Trump 'grand conspiracy' investigation, lawyer says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  14. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. US Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Trump administration suffers double legal setback over immigration rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. US Supreme Court denies Trump bid to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0xa8da044bb908d46d98bfda6f2dbe2ca94007efe851e80dc4467e8856082a2a70

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • donald-trump
  • saudi-arabia

Last observed . Page built .