Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?

Probability

13.0%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 13.0% at
  • 24 hours−0.5 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 13.5% at
  • 7 days+1.5 ppup over 7 daysfrom 11.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-08 19:22 to 09-15 18:22 UTC. Starts at 13.0%, ends at 14.0%, ranging between 9.5% and 17.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1209-1409-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.017624 increments
  • 7 days0.0079168 increments
  • 30 days0.0070305 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Medium confidence0.46
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-15T17:20:33.285Z, calculated at 2026-09-15T18:16:06.320Z.
Participation behind it
$771 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.13

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.13 at 2026-09-15T16:20:31.724Z
  • 24h−0.5 points down, measured from 0.14 at 2026-09-14T17:20:47.307Z
  • 7d+1.5 points up, measured from 0.12 at 2026-09-08T17:22:05.178Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.018 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.008 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.007 probability units per √hour, from 305 changes

Confidence 0.46 — Medium

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.61, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.20, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score
  • liquidity is below $5,000

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Judge blocks plan to return Trump's name to the Kennedy Center

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Israeli ‘influence campaign against Qatar’ launched after October 7 attack

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Who is Robert Kraft, pro-Israel billionaire who cancelled Macklemore?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Canada, the UK and Australia should investigate the WCK attack in Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Supreme Court blocks Trump's plan to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. SCOTUS rejects Trump's mail voting limits.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  4. Why is pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil suing Columbia University?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Air pollution spiked after the Trump administration stopped embassy monitoring

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  6. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Ex-CIA chief issued subpoena in Trump 'grand conspiracy' investigation, lawyer says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  8. Palestine weekly: Settlement sanctions spark diplomatic crisis

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. US Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Trump administration suffers double legal setback over immigration rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. B’Tselem: Israeli settler violence aims to eliminate Palestinian existence

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. US Supreme Court denies Trump bid to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. The Supreme Court rejects Trump's mail voting restrictions for this year's midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  15. Landowners in Texas ask court to stop Trump border wall

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Israeli attack targets Gaza displacement camp

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Macklemore cut from Ed Sheeran tour for pro-Palestine stance

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x572971eede0909d69662fe3e09d7c6ada9065ee792b6fa14548e85d6af90ee0b

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • donald-trump
  • israel-gaza

Last observed . Page built .