Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

Probability

21.5%

somewhat unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 21.5% at
  • 24 hours+5.0 ppup over 24 hoursfrom 16.5% at
  • 7 days−2.0 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 23.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 23:22 to 09-16 22:21 UTC. Starts at 23.5%, ends at 21.5%, ranging between 14.5% and 23.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.010424 increments
  • 7 days0.0068168 increments
  • 30 days0.0057334 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.37
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: high. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T22:21:08.210Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T23:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
$279 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Very thin participation — a single contributor could move this number.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.22

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.22 at 2026-09-16T21:21:08.204Z
  • 24h+5.0 points up, measured from 0.17 at 2026-09-15T22:21:09.231Z
  • 7d−2.0 points down, measured from 0.24 at 2026-09-09T22:22:06.079Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.010 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.007 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.006 probability units per √hour, from 334 changes

Confidence 0.37 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.52, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.10, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score
  • liquidity is below $5,000

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Trump administration plans ideological warning signs for Smithsonian

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Germany: Oktoberfest beer prices rise, outpacing inflation

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. After Neuer: Who will be Germany's new No.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Germany news: Conservative state premiers rally behind Merz

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Carney's new love-in with EU has everything to do with Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. Germany: Chancellor Merz is fighting for his political survival

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  4. Senators question Trump's picks for top health positions, including surgeon general

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  5. German drama 'Blindspot Berlin' revisits 2016 Christmas market attack

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. Why Trump is all-in on AI despite the warnings

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Trump administration plans $2.8bn sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. AI leaders call for regulations, Trump dismisses 'hoaxes'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  9. Kennedy Center closes amid financial crisis and Trump name dispute

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Blanche says admin will comply with mail ballot ruling, defends Trump

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Trump's name must stay off Kennedy Center building, judge rules

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  12. Judge blocks plan to return Trump's name to the Kennedy Center

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  13. High fuel prices challenge the German government

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. Supreme Court blocks Trump's plan to restrict mail-in ballots

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. SCOTUS rejects Trump's mail voting limits.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  16. Germany news: Police find arms depot near highway

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  17. East German leader styles self as one-woman bulwark to AfD

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x77abd7f7b1d92d7273479a8e12aa200641a82fc73053dd73502091ac14cce524

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • donald-trump
  • germany

Last observed . Page built .