Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Probability

34.5%

somewhat unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 34.5% at
  • 24 hours+1.0 ppup over 24 hoursfrom 33.5% at
  • 7 days−3.0 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 37.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 07:22 to 09-16 06:21 UTC. Starts at 37.5%, ends at 34.5%, ranging between 33.5% and 37.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.004324 increments
  • 7 days0.0028168 increments
  • 30 days0.0021318 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.87
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T06:21:05.781Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T06:26:06.324Z.
Participation behind it
$69,704 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.35

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.35 at 2026-09-16T05:21:05.236Z
  • 24h+1.0 points up, measured from 0.34 at 2026-09-15T06:21:58.645Z
  • 7d−3.0 points down, measured from 0.38 at 2026-09-09T06:22:06.236Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.004 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.003 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.002 probability units per √hour, from 318 changes

Confidence 0.87 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.97, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.34, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Republican forces Congress to hold impeachment vote for Pete Hegseth

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. US Senate crypto bill collapses in blow to industry

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. First Secretary of State Louise Haigh's speech to the Trade Union Congress 2026.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. US Supreme Court rejects Trump mail ballot restrictions ahead of midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. The Supreme Court rejects Trump's mail voting restrictions for this year's midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  3. Mitch McConnell returns to Senate after fall that led to an extended medical absence

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  4. Remembering 9/11.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  5. Trump jokes Republicans can ‘cheat like hell’ in the midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Jimmy Kimmel moves Senate interview to YouTube in latest collision with FCC

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. The Trump-to-Mamdani voter is real.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Trump promises $5,000 payouts if GOP wins midterms: Can the US afford it?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Trump says every adult American would get $5,000 if Republicans win midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  10. Trump: Every American gets $5,000 if Republicans win House & Senate

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Four takeaways from Trump's speech at first Republican midterms convention

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  12. Trump promises Americans $5,000 if Republicans win midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  13. Trump vows to be at centre of US midterms: Republican convention takeaways

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Trump says the US-Iran war will end right after midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Dallas Republican convention: How Trump looms over midterms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  16. Trump-backed group announces $10m ad spend for midterm Senate race in Texas

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Voters are fed up with data centers.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x741bb46008b72234857c5118c8365ab3c2f69dbf28b30b59de04f173b8a778de

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • us-congress

Last observed . Page built .