Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Probability 0.50

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

• 1h±0.2 points unchanged, measured from 0.50 at 2026-09-15T19:22:32.173Z
• 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.50 at 2026-09-14T20:20:47.794Z
• 7d±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.50 at 2026-09-08T20:22:05.540Z
• 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

• 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
• 24h0.001 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
• 7d0.022 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
• 30d0.046 probability units per √hour, from 308 changes

Confidence 0.13 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

• Participation behind the contract0.11, carrying 40% of the score
• Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
• Distance between the quoted sides0.00, carrying 20% of the score
• Time until the question settles0.21, carrying 10% of the score

• liquidity is below $5,000

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

• This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
• The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.