Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will Ursula von der Leyen be the next Secretary General of NATO?

Probability

6.0%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 6.0% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 6.0% at
  • 7 days−2.5 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 8.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 19:02 to 09-16 18:02 UTC. Starts at 6.5%, ends at 6.0%, ranging between 6.0% and 13.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0073168 increments
  • 30 days0.0080330 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.09
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T18:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T18:46:11.890Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.06

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.06 at 2026-09-16T17:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.06 at 2026-09-15T18:02:00.000Z
  • 7d−2.5 points down, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-09T18:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.007 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.008 probability units per √hour, from 330 changes

Confidence 0.09 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.75, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.20, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. The Prime Minister hosted the NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, at the Harwell Science and Innovation Campus this afternoon.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  2. NATO downs drone over Lithuania, ‘probably’ launched by Russia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Correspondence published in line with UK government requirements under article 5.3 of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

10 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. NATO jets shoot down drone over Lithuania

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. Nato jets down drone that entered Lithuanian airspace

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  4. NATO pledges increased Ukraine support as Russia strikes near border

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. European Commission Statement Brussels, 08 Sep 2026 Together with NATO Secretary General Rutte, I welcome the agreement by Member States on the derogation for Ukraine to purchase crucial products for Patriot air ...

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    © European Union, CC BY 4.0

  6. UK Armed Forces have deployed to the remote Arctic island of Jan Mayen alongside Norwegian and US allies, in a demonstration of NATO's enhanced capability to operate jointly in the High North.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  7. EU and Nato vow to step up pressure on Russia after 'new escalation' in Germany

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. The NATO submarine rescue system tests global RAF airlift capability in major exercise, keeping UK, France and Norway crews emergency ready.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  9. Pentagon quizzes NATO allies on political loyalty, documents reveal

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. NATO ‘prepared’ to defend allies amid report of Iranian strike plans

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-ULEY

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • nato

Last observed . Page built .