Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

US recession by end of 2026?

Probability

10.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour−1.0 ppdown over 1 hourfrom 11.5% at
  • 24 hours−5.0 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 15.5% at
  • 7 days+3.0 ppup over 7 daysfrom 7.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 00:20 to 09-16 23:21 UTC. Starts at 7.5%, ends at 11.5%, ranging between 6.5% and 23.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.024624 increments
  • 7 days0.0144168 increments
  • 30 days0.0103334 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.73
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T22:21:08.210Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T23:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
$79,187 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.11

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h−1.0 points down, measured from 0.12 at 2026-09-16T21:21:08.204Z
  • 24h−5.0 points down, measured from 0.16 at 2026-09-15T22:21:09.231Z
  • 7d+3.0 points up, measured from 0.08 at 2026-09-09T22:22:06.079Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.025 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.014 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.010 probability units per √hour, from 334 changes

Confidence 0.73 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.17, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. With the US and Canada locked in a trade war, fears of a recession lurk

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • us-recession

Last observed . Page built .