Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

Probability

5.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 5.5% at
  • 24 hours−0.5 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 6.0% at
  • 7 days+0.5 ppup over 7 daysfrom 5.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-07 13:21 to 09-14 12:20 UTC. Starts at 5.0%, ends at 5.5%, ranging between 5.0% and 6.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0709-0909-1109-1209-14
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.001024 increments
  • 7 days0.0010168 increments
  • 30 days0.0015276 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.73
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-14T12:20:44.924Z, calculated at 2026-09-14T12:25:53.255Z.
Participation behind it
$8,046 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.06

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.06 at 2026-09-14T11:20:46.316Z
  • 24h−0.5 points down, measured from 0.06 at 2026-09-13T12:20:46.357Z
  • 7d+0.5 points up, measured from 0.05 at 2026-09-07T12:21:53.228Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.001 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.001 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.002 probability units per √hour, from 276 changes

Confidence 0.73 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.83, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.97, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.70, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.20, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Filed: 2026-08-25 AccNo: 0001493152-26-040102 Size: 1 MB Item 1.01: Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Item 3.02: Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities Item 5.03: Amendments to Articles of Incorporation or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal Year Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  2. Filed: 2026-08-25 AccNo: 0000067215-26-000036 Size: 139 KB Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • bitcoin

Last observed . Page built .