Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

Probability

24.0%

somewhat unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 24.0% at
  • 24 hours−0.5 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 24.5% at
  • 7 daysNo baseline this far back
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History

No observations of this contract in the last 7 days.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings0 increments
  • 24 hours0.071523 increments
  • 7 days0.052147 increments
  • 30 days0.052147 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.08
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-03T21:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-03T22:22:32.648Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.24

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.24 at 2026-09-03T21:02:00.000Z
  • 24h−0.5 points down, measured from 0.25 at 2026-09-02T22:02:00.000Z
  • 7dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 0 changes in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.072 probability units per √hour, from 23 changes
  • 7d0.052 probability units per √hour, from 47 changes
  • 30d0.052 probability units per √hour, from 47 changes

Confidence 0.08 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.55, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.20, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Congress is under pressure to act on AI — here's what that could look like

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Poll shows Americans are increasingly alarmed by AI’s ecological footprint

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Microsoft says AI rival Anthropic could have 'disastrous impact' on humanity

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. US political rivals Sanders and Bannon unite on AI warning

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. What lies behind Scotland's AI data centre boom

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. Filed: 2026-09-16 AccNo: 0001062993-26-004974 Size: 768 KB Item 8.01: Other Events Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  4. As campaign season gears up, AI-generated ads are everywhere

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  5. Why Trump is all-in on AI despite the warnings

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  6. Anthropic CEO didn’t foresee the speed of global AI growth

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. OpenAI boss says world 'right to be afraid' but 'should trust' AI firms

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  8. Why doomsday warnings are not the only threat to the AI juggernaut

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  9. AI app ads promoting 'objectification of women' banned by watchdog

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  10. AI leaders call for regulations, Trump dismisses 'hoaxes'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  11. Filed: 2026-09-15 AccNo: 0001437749-26-030466 Size: 1 MB Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  12. US speaker rejects AI pause, warns of losing edge to China

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. Filed: 2026-09-15 AccNo: 0001101215-26-000084 Size: 304 KB Item 7.01: Regulation FD Disclosure Item 9.01: Financial Statements and Exhibits

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    SEC EDGAR

  14. Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon to share a stage to promote curbs on AI

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  15. Trump says AI safety fears a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  16. Why top AI researchers are warning about human extinction

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  17. Telecommunications industry leaders in the UK and India will harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to tackle online fraud, scams and harms.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXAIGROWTHBET-34JAN26-T15

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • ai-capability

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