Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 1.50%?

Probability

74.5%

somewhat likely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 74.5% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 74.5% at
  • 7 days+1.5 ppup over 7 daysfrom 73.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 00:02 to 09-16 23:02 UTC. Starts at 73.0%, ends at 74.5%, ranging between 70.0% and 80.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.019824 increments
  • 7 days0.0205168 increments
  • 30 days0.0205335 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.05
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T23:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T23:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.75

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.75 at 2026-09-16T22:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.75 at 2026-09-15T23:02:00.000Z
  • 7d+1.5 points up, measured from 0.73 at 2026-09-09T23:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.020 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.020 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.021 probability units per √hour, from 335 changes

Confidence 0.05 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.92, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.00, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. What to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 years

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Watch: Why has the Federal Reserve raised interest rates?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. US Fed raises key rate for first time in 3 years

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

16 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. US Fed raises interest rates as inflation weighs on economy

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  3. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  4. Fed expected to raise interest rates.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  5. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 3 years

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  6. Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  7. US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikes

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Fed's Kevin Warsh warns inflation is too high, sparking bets rate hikes are coming

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  9. Experts warn more flooding might hit Nepal.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  10. The stakes as high as Kevin Warsh is set to give his first major speech as Fed Chair

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  11. Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  12. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook denounces Trump’s mortgage fraud claims

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  14. Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  15. Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Regions Bank and former employee of United Community Bank

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  16. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXFEDFUNDSYEAR-36JAN01-T1.50

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • us-federal-reserve

Last observed . Page built .